04.17.07
Jockeying for position in the East
Along with the entire Nation, I thoroughly enjoyed the Red Sox dismantling of the Angels. Lackey, Santana, and even Carrasco are decent pitchers; the Angels bullpen is rightly acclaimed as one of the best in the game. Yet in a classic Fenway sweep, the Red Sox bats pounded them for 25 runs over (adding insult to injury) a scant 24 innings!
Let’s not take anything away from the Sox starters. Wakefield, Schilling, and Beckett were masterful, allowing only 2 runs over 21 innings for a composite ERA of 0.86. The bullpen got in a few jabs of its own, conceding only 1 run in 6 innings of work — and escaping unscathed from a critical situation in Game 1. Even the weather cooperated, making Jered Weaver a problem for another team to solve, and pushing Julian Tavarez back three more days (the less we see of him, the better).
You have to enjoy the standings at this point! Not only do the Red Sox sit atop the AL East, but their total of 30 runs allowed stands out in a division where no other team has allowed fewer than 50. Tampa Bay (admittedly in two more games) has coughed up *89* runs, nearly three times the Red Sox total to date! Other than the Orioles, the offenses are all expected to be good-to-great; it will be the pitching that determines who ends up on top.
So now we face the true test of champions, thirteen straight intra-divisional games including five against the Blue Jays, six against the Yankees, and two against the still-dangerous Orioles without a single (scheduled) off-day to relieve the pace. By starting pitcher:
- Matsuzaka: @Tor, NYY, @NYY
- Wakefield: @Tor, Tor, @NYY
- Tavarez: @Tor, Tor, @NYY**
- Schilling: NYY, @Bal
- Beckett: NYY, @Bal
** No guarantee that Tavarez will make all three of these scheduled starts — any rain cancellations would push him back in the schedule, limiting him to only two starts. He may also face some competition if Devern Hansack continues to pitch well.
The key story in these series, however, will play out not on the field but in the trainer’s room. The Yankees rotation is in shambles, with four of their top six starters on the DL for at least the first series. The Red Sox will face Andy Pettitte in Game 1, but everything after that is up in the air. (Karstens, freshly off the DL, and Chase Wright are my bets for the other two games.) Meanwhile, Toronto has lost three starting players to the DL. While Adam Lind should more than adequately replace Reed Johnson in LF, the Blue Jays have only weak alternatives to Glaus at 3B and no premier relievers to replace Ryan as closer. Their chances of contending this year may hang on how rapidly and effectively they are able to get these players back into games. Regardless, that won’t happen in time for these initial games.
The Red Sox have (knock on wood) thus far been healthier than their competition, suggesting that the injury factor that took them out of contention in 2006 could work to their benefit in 2007? Only time will tell.
Pontifex said,
April 17, 2007 at 12:34 pm
Thus the question, “Will it be pitching or health that determines who ends up on top?” The Sox have fared well enough through this first measure of the season, but is that truly because of their performance, or because of the depleted rosters of their AL rivals?
I’m still concerned over the Sox’ apparent inability to play consistent ball in Toronto. I say ‘apparent’ as I have not pursued due diligence on the matter and I don’t really know what their record is over the last 3 seasons (that would be a good enough sample for me) in Toronto.
Can the Sox hit left-handers? Again, the appearance to me is that they have struggled. What will ‘07 bring?
Yes, I have a lot of homework to do, but to paraphrase Jimy, it’s a marathon and if a turtle didn’t have a shell, or if the shell was made of lucite, then what do you call it?
Yeah, I kinda miss that cat.
Valentine said,
April 17, 2007 at 1:51 pm
Hi Pontifex,
The Red Sox have yet to face an injury-plagued team this season. Other than Game #2 of the Angels series (Hector Carrasco would not normally be in the Angels rotation), I don’t think you can point to a win where injuries played a significant factor.
The Red Sox have definitely struggled with the Blue Jays over the last two seasons. See: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2006_sched.shtml
2006 7-12, 84 RS, 109 RA
2005 7-11, 76 RS, 115 RA
Last year we were taken to task by Rios (.446 BA), Wells (8 HR), Benji Molina (1.075 OPS), and seemingly everybody in their lineup. Troy Glaus only hit .197 against the Red Sox, but he slugged 5 HR and drove in 12 runs in those 19 games. Their pitching was merely good, not great, so we can beat them IF our rotation can get the job done. Needless to say, I’m not expecting to win on Thursday.