04.20.07
Red Sox vs. Yankees: rivalry renewed
Once again, the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry is renewed. Godzilla vs. Mothra, Empire vs. Rebellion, the Captains of the West vs. the Host of Mordor, this is an epic confrontation that never seems to go stale! Remember Jason “Juice” Giambi and his game 7 home runs? Pedro Martinez tackled by Don Zimmer. Aaron Boone. Bronson Arroyo tagging out “Slappy”. A bloody sock and the World’s Greatest Comeback, redeeming those earlier defeats. So many terrific games!
Boston and New York sit atop the AL East, with the Red Sox leading by a slim one game lead. Yet each team has taken a different path. Riding a burst of power from Hall of Fame talent Alex Rodriguez (.351/.418/.965, 10 HR, 26 RBI), the Yankees have scored 91 times. Averaging 6.5 R/G, they have outproduced the league and their opponents by a 45% margin! In contrast, the Red Sox offense has sputtered while their pitching leads the league with a 2.58 ERA.
Can four aces beat a full house? The Red Sox will throw Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and (in relief) Jonathan Papelbon against the Yankees. These four have combined for a composite line of 62 IP, 44 H, 16 BB, 3 HR, 68 K, 0.97 WHIP, and 2.17 ERA. Yet Papelbon will likely not be available on Friday after having worked hard in the previous two games. We cannot expect complete games against a patient and powerful lineup like the Yankees, and these four pitchers will likely combine for only 21 of the 27 innings this weekend. Can the other bullpen arms pick up the slack?
Here are my predictions…
Game 1: Schilling vs. Pettitte
Both veterans throw strikes, forestalling extended rallies, but neither is likely to escape unscathed. The game should be tight through six innings, with Schilling holding a slight advantage. Varitek hits a home run in the game, but the Yankees come roaring back in the seventh and eighth and hand the Red Sox relievers their first loss of the season.
Game 2: Beckett vs. Karstens
Last year the Yankees torched Josh Beckett for 24 hits, 16 walks, and 22 runs in only 20 innings. This year will tell a different tale. Beckett will keep the Yankees attack under wraps with more strikeouts than baserunners, pitching six or seven strong innings. In contrast, Karstens will allow baserunners in nearly every frame, hitting the showers after five with a 4-2 deficit. Taking over a 6-2 lead in the seventh, the Red Sox bullpen will close out the game (this time) without excessive drama.
Game 3: Matsuzaka vs. Wright
Wright’s excellent curve makes the Red Sox look silly, but he hangs one to Manny Ramirez for his second home run of the series and an early lead. Matsuzaka demonstrates pinpoint control, but ARod takes him deep with the bases empty. Papelbon comes in with bases loaded and one out in the eighth to strike out the side and protect a 4-3 victory.
Maybe it will happen this way? Maybe not. I expect the Red Sox bullpen to absorb at least one beating in this series, as Papelbon will not be available for at least the first game. In contrast, I would be surprised to see the Red Sox come back against the Yankees relievers. The Red Sox greatest advantage is their excellent rotation — I expect that to ultimately be decisive in this series.
Pontifex said,
April 20, 2007 at 1:56 pm
This is certainly going to be a test of relief. Current ‘wisdom’ postulates that bar Papelbon, the Sox middle relief and setup staff are a near disaster.
I’m not going to try to predict at-bats, but I do think that the Gotham Nine are ready to feast on any Boston hurler who comes in relief of the starters. I also think that they will hold off and see what Matsuzaka-san brings to the plate. “He once threw 418 pitches in one game back in Japan? Let’s see if he can do it against us.” How Matsuzaka-san handles this first outing against the Yankees may well foretell the fortunes of the Sox over the next 20 games.
Beckett seems to have learned from last year. I don’t know if redemption is a concept worthy of an April ballgame, but he may be so inclined to show that last year was a learning year, and this is the year to apply his degree.
As for Schilling’s start, well I’ll read ‘38 Pitches’ to see what he has to say.
Valentine said,
April 21, 2007 at 10:58 am
Game 1 debriefing:
Called Varitek’s home run correctly! (His first career HR off Pettitte, so it wasn’t based on numbers — just a gut feeling.) Called the bullpen VERY wrong. JC Romero looked awful, but Snyder picked up the pieces and Okajima was outstanding against three of the toughest hitters anywhere.
As for the Yankees relief? Is Mariano Rivera at the end of the road? Not only is that his second blown save of the season, but he is getting beaten by mediocre bats. Marco Scutaro last week, now Crisp and Cora. He’s a first-ballot hall-of-famer, but his recent performances have to raise questions.
I am looking forward to Game 2 Let’s hope the results justify the anticipation!
Valentine said,
April 21, 2007 at 9:03 pm
Game 2 recap:
I missed most of the game (was cantoring for the 4pm service), but Beckett looked pretty good in the part I saw. I also called the bullpen right this time! Yet once again, I underestimated the damage that the Yankees bats can inflict. If the Red Sox hadn’t dismantled Karstens so efficiently, the end result could have been very disappointing.
Too bad Matsui is still on the DL, as it would be terrific to see the Monster take on Godzilla. Maybe next time around? Here’s hoping that the Red Sox did their advance scouting on Chase Wright!
Quote for the day:
“Good pitching will always stop good hitting — and vice-versa.”
-Casey Stengel
Valentine said,
April 23, 2007 at 1:56 pm
Game 3 synopsis:
Chase Wright made it once through the Red Sox lineup in good order, getting 8 of the first 12 Red Sox hitters. Manny Ramirez got a pitch to crush in the first inning, but popped it up. But the next time around? I’ve never seen anything like it! Ten pitches, four home runs, Wright is Chased, and the Red Sox gain an early lead.
Matsuzaka wasn’t quite as sharp as I had hoped. Two HBP, each contributing to a run. Might Giambi’s double in the first inning have been caught by a speedier LF? One of those unanswerable questions.
Both Okajima and Papelbon were brought back again. At this point, Okajima has worked in three straight and Paps has thrown a total of 87 pitches while appearing in four of five games. There are definitely some well-rested arms in the bullpen, though I’d rather not see them trying to hold a tight lead.
Round two against the Yankees is only four days away!