05.21.07
How good are the Yankees?
Roger Clemens is back! Almost. The Rocket makes his second minor league start on Wednesday in AA Trenton, facing Red Sox top prospect Clay Buchholz. (Buchholz may be half his age, but it should be a good battle.) Barring setback, Clemens will then be promoted to the majors. He will likely face the Blue Jays on May 28th or 29th, setting up Mussina, Pettitte, and Clemens (in some order) against the Red Sox in Fenway.
So how strong are the Yankee Rockets, Mark II? Their rotation, with projected ERAs, will eventually shake out as:
| 3.75 |
| 3.86 |
| 4.17 |
| 4.22 |
| 4.31 |
You might quibble with a couple of those numbers, or with the ordering, but one fact is crystal clear. This revamped rotation will be substantially stronger than the 4.87 ERA the Yankees starters have compiled to date. Unfortunately for the Yankees, it won’t be any more durable. Phil Hughes is only 21 and will be held to a strict pitch count. Neither are the others likely to work past 100 pitches very often. This is a rotation that can give you six strong innings, but will usually need the bullpen in the seventh.
How does said bullpen stand? Despite the 6-8 record, they’ve done excellent work. Bruney, Proctor, and Myers all have an ERA under 3.50. Mariano Rivera struggled in April, but has allowed only six hits and one run (1 BB vs. 5 K) in his last seven innings. As long as these four are healthy, they have sufficient talent to close out games successfully.
Yet there is reason to question their ability to stay off the DL. The Yankees bullpen has been worked very hard in the early going, with their setup trio each on pace for 80+ innings on the year. Bruney had some injury problems with the Diamondbacks. Mike Myers has not topped 50 innings in ten years! Proctor is perhaps the best bet to handle this workload, but 80 innings is a lot for anybody.
If the Yankees pitching can get healthy and stay healthy, I would expect an overall ERA in the 4.00 to 4.25 range, with a RA around 4.50. This won’t lead the league, but given an offense that averages 5.5 runs per game it should be sufficient for a .600 winning percentage going forward. Combining a 72-48 record over their remaining 120 games with their current 19-23 record, the Yankees might reasonably anticipate a 91-win finish.
I might be off by a few wins… Last year the Yankees offense averaged nearly a quarter run per game better than that! And it is conceivable that the pitching might beat my estimates by a quarter run as well, especially if the Yankees pursue further acquisitions at the trading deadline. Yet this analysis assumes that the key starters and relievers all remain healthy. How likely is that?
The Yankees have a very good team and could be dangerous in October. But after their slow start, they might just as easily fall short in the last week of September. Even if my estimates are pessimistic, the Yankees are now one key injury away from missing the playoffs.