05.29.07

Offensive Lines

Posted in Baseball at 3:34 pm by Valentine

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference Summable Game Logs, with occasional tidbits from ESPN.com player cards. VORP is a measure of cumulative offense relative to positional expectations, and can be found at Baseball Prospectus.

The Red Sox have been remarkably consistent this year! Breaking their season up, they have 6, 7, 7, 8, and 7 wins in each ten-game chunk. Despite losing their ace to a two-week sojourn on the DL, they once again sit at an even .700 record. Even more remarkable than their overall record, the Red Sox have lost consecutive games only twice this season. They have dropped a series only three times! Oakland, at 1-1, is the only team to play .500+ baseball against the Red Sox. Some luck is involved, perhaps, but this is the best Red Sox team I have ever had the pleasure of seeing. They have one of the best rotations in the majors, a bullpen that consistently slams the door, and an offense that is among the best at putting runs on the board.

Fifty games is just over 30% of the schedule (that 1/3 mark falls on Friday), so you can multiply the lines below by 3.3 to project full-season totals.

Starters

Kevin Youkilis:
Was: .333/.424/.476, 28 R, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 1-0 SB
Plus: .429/.455/.810, 11 R, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 1-0 SB
Now: .354/.431/.550, 39 R, 7 HR, 28 RBI, 2-0 SB, +24.9 VORP

Youkilis had a 50 game stretch last year (April 13 to June 9) over which he hit .321/.442/.519, but his batting average this year is reaching new heights. I have long defended Youkilis as an average-or-better starter at either third base or first base. This year it will be my pleasure to defend him as an MVP candidate! Did I mention his flawless defense at first base? This from a player who barely touched the position before last year?

David Ortiz:
Was: .306/.424/.599, 27 R, 9 HR, 33 RBI
Plus: .370/.486/.519, 7 R, 0 HR, 5 RBI
Now: .316/.434/.586, 34 R, 9 HR, 38 RBI, +24.8 VORP

Ortiz is on pace for a +80 VORP! His power numbers may be down slightly this year, but his BA and OBP are at career highs. He is again one of the most productive hitters in the majors.

Mike Lowell:
Was: .317/.379/.528, 19 R, 7 HR, 30 RBI, 2-0 SB
Plus: .371/.421/.657, 7 R, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 0-0 SB
Now: .328/.387/.554, 26 R, 9 HR, 39 RBI, 2-0 SB, +20.5 VORP

Last year on this date, Lowell was hitting .324/.375/.580, so we’ve seen this kind of production before. The Red Sox have to find a way to help him keep his strength up in the second half this year, even if it involves a month on the DL. The arguments here might remind you of Cal Ripken?

Jason Varitek:
Was: .282/.380/.409, 18 R, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 1-0 SB
Plus: .208/.310/.500, 3 R, 1 HR, 8 RBI, and 2 3B!!!
Now: .269/.367/.425, 21 R, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 1-0 SB, +8.4 VORP

Varitek now has an even 500 runs for his career and is on the verge of 1000 hits. Major milestones, if not ones that will impress HOF voters.

Manny Ramirez:
Was: .248/.341/.396, 19 R, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 0-0 SB
Plus: .342/.390/.658, 7 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 0-0 SB
Now: .267/.350/.449, 26 R, 8 HR, 31 RBI, 0-0 SB, +7.5 VORP

That’s a little better! Manny has extra base hits in four of his last five games.

Dustin Pedroia:
Was: .253/.356/.356, 12 R, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 0-0 SB
Plus: .444/.483/.667, 5 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 0-0 SB
Now: .298/.385/.430, 17 R, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 0-0 SB, +7.2 VORP

Pedroia is riding an eight-game hitting streak, and has the fourth best OBP on the team. Despite this terrific run, he has been relegated to the bench in four of the last thirteen games and hasn’t once peeped his head above the #9 spot in the lineup. This was appropriate when he was struggling in April, but is a waste of a hot May. Francona is slow to act — and this is a good trait in a manager — but it is time for Pedroia to swap places with Lugo in the lineup.

Julio Lugo:
Was: .252/.314/.361, 22 R, 2 HR, 23 RBI, 12-0 SB
Plus: .146/.205/.268, 4 R, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 3-0 SB
Now: .230/.292/.342, 26 R, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 15-0 SB, +1.7 VORP

Lugo isn’t playing particularly poorly. His BA is below expectations, undercutting his OBP and SLG, however he is making good contact and I expect those averages to rise. Furthermore, he is hitting .320 with RISP and is stealing at every opportunity; his run production is legitimately strong. I would still prefer to have Pedroia’s excellent OBP ahead of the power bats, taking advantage of Lugo’s speed at the bottom of the lineup.

JD Drew:
Was: .250/.355/.358, 18 R, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 1-1 SB
Plus: .185/.389/.222, 8 R, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0-0 SB
Now: .238/.362/.333, 26 R, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 1-1 SB, +0.2 VORP

Drew has finally shown hints of life in the last two games. Perhaps he has turned the corner? His OBP remains strong, but he needs to come up with more than the occasional hit to justify his position in the order. Do we want a #5 hitter with fewer than 60 RBI?

Coco Crisp:
Was: .233/.286/.310, 21 R, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 8-1 SB
Plus: .263/.364/.421, 6 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2-1 SB
Now: .240/.304/.335, 27 R, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 10-2 SB, -0.7 VORP

From May 14 through May 27, Crisp hit .300/.375/.420. Unfortunately, that’s not an impressive line given that I went out of my way to pick the best possible endpoints. Extend that by three games to include the 0-fers on either side, and his averages drop to .246/.333/.344 for the period. I can live with this level of production more easily than I can live with Drew’s collapse, but he’ll lose his job to Ellsbury in August if he can’t pick up the pace.

Bench marks

Alex Cora:
Was: .362/.413/.603, 58 AB
Plus: .143/.188/.143, 14 AB
Now: .319/.367/.514, 72 AB, +6.2 VORP

It is time for Cora to return to a reserve role, spotting Lugo and Pedroia once a week and serving as a pinch-runner or defensive replacement for another 50 games. Cora has only reached base five times in his last eight starts (all a complete game), yet he continues to play well off the bench. Even if Cora were still hitting, a L/R platoon with Pedroia makes no sense — both players have a reverse platoon split over their careers.

Wily Mo Pena:
Was: .250/.353/.432, 44 AB, 20 K
Plus: .250/.250/.583, 12 AB, 1 K
Now: .250/.333/.464, 56 AB, 21 K, +1.7 VORP

Over the last month, Pena is hitting .333/.400/.519 with 6 K in 30 PA. He seems to be finding his groove, though it can be hard to tell when he is playing so infrequently. He is on pace for less than 200 AB this year, fewer than Cora. That may reflect Pena’s defensive limitations more than his offensive prowess.

Doug Mirabelli:
Was: .219/.265/.438, 32 AB
Plus: .100/.182/.100, 10 AB
Now: .190/.244/.357, 42 AB, -1.4 VORP

Mirabelli has some job security because of his work with Wakefield, however the Red Sox brain-trust is surely considering alternatives — and wondering if they dare risk a repeat of the Bard debacle.

Eric Hinske:
Was: .200/.327/.400, 40 AB
Plus: .083/.083/.083, 12 AB
Now: .173/.279/.327, 52 AB, -2.7 VORP

Hinske might reasonably point to his sporadic playing time as an excuse for his poor performance, yet (barring injury) he cannot expect a more substantial role on this team. I don’t mind letting Hinske see a few more starts as the season wears on, but he’ll need to get his averages up to keep his spot on the roster.

Overall offense

Was: .276/.362/.435
Now: .278/.361/.446, 272 R, 106 2B, 11 3B, 53 HR, 217 BB, 31-5 SB

The Red Sox are beating their opponents in EVERY MAJOR CATEGORY:
+81 R, +60 H, +9 2B, +3 3B, +15 HR, +120 TB, +78 RBI, +65 BB,
-74 K, +4 SB (+0 CS), +.034 BA, +.049 OBP, +.068 SLG, +.117 OPS

The entire lineup is hot right now, with the exception of Lugo, Drew, and Crisp. And the latter two are showing signs of coming around… The Red Sox are fighting the Indians and Tigers for the league lead in runs scored, but the bottom line is putting up more runs than your pitching allows — and the Red Sox are without equal in that comparison!

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