07.29.07

Defensive Growth

Posted in Baseball at 5:56 pm by Valentine

The Red Sox have allowed only 3.94 runs per game this year, a marked improvement from their mediocre 5.09 mark set last year. Much of the credit is due the pitching; Beckett has shown better command, while both Matsuzaka and Okajima have played key roles. Yet even the best pitchers rely on their defense to make the plays, and the Red Sox growth defensively has contributed to their success at run prevention.

Defensive skill is commonly measured by “errors”, however an error is rarely scored on a ball the fielder fails to reach. The league leaders in fielding percentage are often players with soft hands but very limited mobility, making it a very poor measure of effectiveness. Range Factor is perhaps slightly better, counting the number of plays converted successfully, yet it is a poor tool for assessing a team. After all, there are only 27 outs to go around and somebody has to convert the putout. Neither does it differentiate between fielding a batted ball (hard!) and catching a thrown ball (easy!). A first-baseman who plays in front of a ground-ball pitching staff could be expected to lead the league in Range Factor simply by standing on the bag to receive throws.

The best commonly available defensive measure is Zone Rating, a percentage of the balls hit to a player’s typical “defensive zone” that are converted for outs. It isn’t perfect by any stretch of the imagination; there are significant park factors, especially for outfielders, and it does not sufficiently reward players with exceptional range who go “outside their zone” to make plays. Still, a player with a strong Zone Rating over the course of a full season can be presumed to be strong defensively and a player with a very weak Zone Rating likely does not belong at his position. I will also cite Defensive Rating, a normalized statistic (100 = league average) calculated by Baseball Prospectus. These statistics will tell largely the same story, though some discrepancies can be expected.

So how have the Red Sox fielders fared this year?

First Base

We commonly presume that first base is the easiest defensive position to play. That may be true, in a comparative sense, but that doesn’t imply that a player can expect to instantly excel. Kevin Youkilis spent the 2005 off-season learning the position, then played merely respectable defense in 2006 (.823 ZR, 100 DR). With continued practice at the position his defense this year has improved to a .882 ZR (109 DR) which is tied for fifth in the majors. While there are a few players who are superior defensively, most are a step down. Youkilis is playing better defense than Mark Teixeira, winner of the AL Gold Glove each of the last two years. He still is without an error (after committing five last year), a fact that his fellow infielders appreciate.

Second Base

Mark Loretta was very consistent playing the keystone last year. He committed only 4 errors and turned the double play well, but with an .805 ZR (92 DR) reached far fewer balls than most of his peers. Dustin Pedroia has been almost as consistent and is sixth in the majors with an .841 ZR (101 DR). Second base is often a position where an aging or defensively limited shortstop will end up, so a spry young player like Pedroia can shine in that context.

Third Base

While offensive expectations at the hot corner are higher than at second base, it may be an even more difficult position to field defensively. The ideal third baseman has the range to play second and the arm to play shortstop, a description that Mike Lowell comes close to fitting. He turned in an exceptional performance in 2006 with a career-best .811 ZR (112 DR) to place fourth in the majors. Unfortunately, hampered by a sprained thumb for most of June, Lowell already has more errors in 2007 than he did in 2005 and 2006 combined. His other defensive statistics have also suffered, if not as dramatically, with his Zone Rating falling to a middle-of-the-pack .769 and his Defensive Rating falling to a career worst 90. Lowell has been consistently excellent defensively over his career, so I am inclined to dismiss his 2007 struggles as an aberration.

Shortstop

Alex Gonzalez wowed the Fenway Faithful with his acrobatic plays last year, and by any measure was very good defensively. His .863 ZR would have been fourth in the majors (he missed the innings-played qualification) and while his Defensive Rating of 96 falls short of his reputation, it is not too shabby. Many were fearful that Lugo’s glovework would be a let-down after that, yet I have heard few complaints on that count. With only 10 errors (seven for Gonzalez last year) he has been more consistent than feared, and his .820 ZR (100 DR) is at least respectable. Surprisingly, Lugo’s bat has been a greater concern than his glove.

Left Field

More than any other position in the majors, left field in Fenway is difficult to evaluate. In many parks a ball that hits off the wall could legitimately have been caught. On the Green Monster, most balls are out of reach. It is a sabermetric conundrum that is difficult to resolve with the available data. In 2006, Manny Ramirez battled a bum knee for much of the season. It showed as he struggled to a .694 ZR, worst in the majors by almost 100 points. Baseball Prospectus gave him an 87 rating, suggesting that he would have greater defensive value as a DH! Both of these numbers are significantly worse than his previous Fenway results, so they cannot be entirely blamed on the Monster. Manny has looked better in 2007, both statistically and to the naked eye. His Zone Rating has improved only slightly to .708 (worst in the league, second worst of his career), yet his DR is up to 100 suggesting his best performance since coming to Boston. Manny has been playing a very shallow left field, perhaps allowing him to make “out of zone” plays that affect his DR more than his ZR. It is a frustrating strategy for fans that watch balls go over his head for doubles, but maybe Terry Francona knows what he is doing?

Right Field

JD Drew has not had a good year. His SLG has dropped from .498 to a career-worst .376 SLG, and his defense has suffered similarly. Drew previously had one assist every 17 game-equivalents in right field. This year he has one assist in 80 games. His prior fielding percentage in right field was .983, falling this year to .971. The more sophisticated defensive statistics reflect the same decline, with his ZR falling to .829 (fourth worst in the majors) and his DR to 93. He remains a competent defensive player, but he has not shown the defensive excellence that led the Red Sox to pursue him last winter. He has not even succeeded in fully replacing Trot Nixon’s disappointing 2006 performance.

Center Field

Lest we wallow in self-pity, as is the custom of Red Sox fans, I’ll end with the best. I have consistently described Coco Crisp as a player who would be at the top of the league in left field but who is a little below average when measured against the fleeter fielders in center. His 2006 results supported this assessment, as he finished with a .837 ZR which would have been the worst in the majors. His 99 DR was a little more positive but still did not hint at excellence. This year? Crisp has a .901 ZR, matching the range he flashed as a rookie and good for fourth in the majors. His Defensive Rating is even better, jumping to an unbelievable 119! I don’t quite believe that Crisp is that good, but he is a legitimate candidate for a gold glove.

Overall

While you might debate the merits at a specific position, the Red Sox team defense is clearly strong this year. While they have committed a few more errors than last year’s club, they are still fifth in the majors by that measure. More importantly, their Defensive Efficiency (the proportion of balls in play that are converted for one or more outs) is a seventh-best .712; this is a vast improvement over last year’s mark of .683 which was fourth worst in the majors. Converting an out an extra 3% of the time may not seem like much, but this is the rough equivalent of one hit per game. The next time you see Coco Crisp run one down in the triangle, or Dustin Pedroia make a diving stop, or Manny Ramirez make a tumbling catch to end a rally… Ask yourself, “Would that have been an out last year?” The pitching has been better this year — but the improvement in the defense is equally important.

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