08.01.07

Shooting the Moon

Posted in Baseball at 1:49 pm by Valentine

In the card game of “Hearts”, the usual goal is to avoid ending up with hearts (hence the name) or the queen of spades. However, if a player manages to collect all fourteen of these cards, then the other players are marked down the points. A player who attempts to “shoot the moon”, as this is called, accepts the risk of a poor result in the hope of a massive victory.This is similar to a pennant-race deal in baseball. A contending team will offer up major-league-ready prospects in exchange for a key player that improves their chances of completing the drive to the playoffs and winning the World Series. You cannot evaluate these deals strictly on the basis of value exchanged. The prospects offered up will bring their new team six years of cheap service before reaching free agency, while the veterans going the other way are frequently a two-month rental. The gap does narrow a bit if you factor in the opportunity to sign the veteran to an extended deal, or receive draft-pick compensation when he leaves, yet the prospects in almost every case can be expected to return greater long-term value. The justification for the deal is not winning the most games, but winning the games that matter the most. Thus you cannot evaluate these deals without consideration for the pennant-race context within which they occur.

The Mark Teixeira deal is a clear example of a team “shooting the moon”. The Braves are 3 1/2 games back in the NL East, chasing a Mets team that could soon be bolstered by the return of Pedro Martinez to the mound. The wild-card race is a little tighter, but there are as many as six teams involved with little to differentiate one from another. First base has been a weakness, as various players have combined for a .633 OPS at that position. Teixeira, hitting an .878 OPS prior to the trade, is a huge upgrade. He may only be worth a few wins over the remainder of the season, but in a tight pennant race even one win will often be the difference between a shot at the playoffs and hitting the links early. The Braves had perhaps a 30% chance of making the playoffs before this trade. Now? Their odds are likely double that. Furthermore, they can look forward to making some noise in October rather than going into each series hoping for an upset. Their odds of winning the World Series are still no better than 1 in 10, but that is several times better than before. More than any other available player, Teixeira will help.

In exchange, the Braves cashed in their three top prospects. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is projected as an All-Star catcher, if his defense passes muster, or he could be a solid starter at first base. At only 22 years old, it is likely that his power will develop further. Elvis Andrus, considered the Braves #2 prospect, is an exciting 18 year old shortstop. While his statistics this year are unimpressive, he is playing in High-A ball against players who are four years older. He could easily be a complete bust, but he has the tools to be great. Matt Harrison is an advanced lefty with a quality fastball and plus control. His progress seems to have stalled this year, but he is only 21 and already pitching at AA. His shoulder soreness (supposedly no structural damage) is perhaps a greater concern.

Three other players were involved in the Teixeira deal, with lefty reliever Ron Mahay coming to the Braves and pitching prospects Beau Jones and Neftali Feliz going to Texas. Additionally, the Braves (in a separate deal) traded the disappointing Kyle Davies for Octavio Dotel. I don’t mean to neglect these players. Mahay and Dotel will bolster the flagging Braves bullpen, and the young pitchers given up have talent. Yet these are minor pieces in the larger puzzle. Teixeira, and the three top prospects given in exchange, are the most likely to make an impact.

It makes good sense for the Braves to “shoot the moon” this year. They are on the cusp of the playoffs, where even a small improvement dramatically improves their chances. Smoltz is now 40 years old, Chipper Jones is 35, Andruw Jones is expected to depart via free agency this winter, and both Renteria and Hudson are on the downside of their careers. They would have been improbable contenders beyond 2008 even had they kept the farm system intact. With Teixeira, they get two more shots at lasting glory before needing to rebuild.

In contrast, the Red Sox were more conservative. They did not trade Buchholz, Ellsbury, Lester, or any of their other top-ten prospects. This reluctance cost them Jermaine Dye, a move that would have vastly improved their outfield depth. Nonetheless, they were able to acquire Eric Gagne for Kason Gabbard, Engel Beltre, and David Murphy.

Unlike the Braves, the Red Sox are overwhelmingly likely to make the playoffs. They have the best record in the league and (unlike 1978) can only miss the playoffs if three teams pass them. It could happen if the Red Sox completely fall apart in August and September, but that is an improbable scenario. Thus this deal was made with the playoff roster in mind.

Kason Gabbard is a useful back-end starter. He throws a nice sinking fastball in the mid-eighties and has made great progress with his command this year. Unfortunately, as he proved in his last start, there are times when he completely loses the plate. Four innings of one-hit ball followed by three hits, three walks, and four runs in a single inning. Gabbard will immediately step into the Texas rotation and could be one of their top three starters in 2008. But in Boston? He is clearly behind Beckett, Matsuzaka, Buchholz, and Lester. Schilling and Wakefield as well, until they retire. Masterson and Bowden in a year or two…

Jayson Stark asks, “But if Josh Beckett or Dice-K grabs his shoulder three days from now, how secure would Red Sox Nation feel about the season then — Gagne or no Gagne?” In that unlikely scenario, I expect we would see Buchholz called into action. More likely, Gabbard would have made one more start (tonight) for the Red Sox before being relegated to the pen. Gabbard was especially unlikely to see significant action in the playoffs, since only four starting pitchers are required. Depth is valuable, but given the Red Sox roster and playoff aspirations I believe bullpen depth is more important than rotation depth right now. How secure would Red Sox nation feel if Papelbon were to once again break down at the end of August?

Gabbard looks like he may put together a solid major league career. David Murphy might have a future as a fifth outfielder (with perhaps a .250 batting average, limited power, and no outstanding skills). Engel Beltre is a “toolsy” outfielder who is many years away from even being projectable, let alone being considered a “top prospect”. Think Jason Place, but younger and even farther from the majors. So what about Gagne? Will he be any more useful to the Red Sox?

Gagne was for three years the best reliever in baseball, throwing 82.3 dominant innings each year from 2002 to 2004 . While those days are over, he can still be very effective in a more limited role. His ERA+, adjusted for park and league context, is as strong now as it was in his heyday. Gagne is “fragile”, but then the Red Sox don’t need to get 80 innings out of him. They need a dozen strong innings in October (and a few innings before then to allow Okajima and Papelbon a breather). Relief pitching is especially important in the playoffs, because a single reliever can throw a much higher proportion of the innings. The Red Sox played 14 games in October of 2004, during which Keith Foulke threw 14 innings and Timlin worked an additional 11.2 innings. Combined, they threw 19% of the innings in the playoffs — the rough equivalent of throwing 140 innings each in the regular season. Between Papelbon, Okajima, Gagne, and Delcarmen, the Red Sox can cover a third of their playoff innings with shut-down relievers. Not to poke at a sore spot, but consider how the 1986 playoffs might have been different if the Red Sox had just one more quality arm in the pen?

Gagne makes the Red Sox a stronger playoff team. I don’t know that his contribution will be necessary, but in a key situation I feel more secure with Gagne on the mound than with Snyder or Tavarez. The Red Sox gave up nobody who had a realistic chance of making the playoff roster this year and nobody projected to play a key role in 2008 or beyond. They didn’t land Teixeira, but then they didn’t need to. Like the Braves, they filled a need on the current team. But the Red Sox managed to do so without giving away their top three prospects. In fact, you could argue that the Red Sox improved their farm system with this move. The two draft picks they will receive in compensation when Gagne leaves have a chance to be more valuable than the prospects traded away. Ellsbury, Hansen, Buchholz, Lowrie, Bowden, and Egan were all compensation picks from the loss of Pedro, Lowe, and Cabrera. At least four of those six would represent an excellent return for Gabbard, Murphy, and Engel. This deal was good for the Rangers, as they desperately need pitching, but it is also a clear plus for the Red Sox.

Permalink