10.11.07
Head-to-head: Red Sox vs. Indians batting
The Red Sox and Indians have comparably strong rotations and bullpens for the ALCS. How do their lineups compare? I’d love to compare position-by-position, but these teams get their production from very different spots on the field. So I’ll try to match the hitters according to their role on the team and style of play (as much as possible). These comparisons are strictly looking at offense, not positional or defensive value. The latter considerations are already reflected in the pitchers’ ERAs.
Power Bats:
David Ortiz (DH) .332/.445/.621
Victor Martinez (C) .301/.374/.505
Victor Martinez may be a similarly valuable player to Ortiz when his position is taken into account, however offensively there is no comparison. This is a key difference between the teams; Martinez is very good, but Ortiz is one of the most dangerous hitters in the majors.
Advantage: RED SOX
But… Both players are terrific clutch hitters. The key will be getting them clutch opportunities in which to perform.
Manny Ramirez (DH cum LF) .296/.388/.493
Travis Hafner (DH cum DH) .266/.385/.451
Neither player has been at his best this year; both showed signs of coming around recently. Hafner had an excellent September, while Manny’s at-bats in the final week and during the LDS are as good as ever. Don’t let the season averages fool you. These are two terrific hitters, and both are likely to be at the top of their games in this series.
Advantage: EVEN
If pressed: Manny is a bad man!
Power Bats:
Mike Lowell (3B) .324/.378/.501
Ryan Garko (1B) .289/.359/.483
Garko has 61 RBI this year, Lowell has 57 RBI just since the All-Star Break! Batting fifth, both hitters will have plenty of chances in this series. Yet Lowell makes more consistent contact, and thus is better suited for an RBI role. Given the predominance of RHP on the Red Sox roster, I doubt Garko will have the opportunity to face a lefty in this series. Working on the weak side of his platoon split, he is unlikely to be a major threat.
Advantage: RED SOX
But… Garko had a big ALDS. Don’t ask the Yankees how to get him out, because they haven’t got a clue.
Table-setters:
Kevin Youkilis (1B) .288/.390/.453
Grady Sizemore (CF) .277/.390/.462
It’s hard to know who to match against Sizemore, since the Red Sox have nobody with such a complete skill set, but Youkilis comes the closest. Both are terrific at getting on base, both hit for moderate power. Of course Sizemore is much better on the basepaths, but they are otherwise pretty even offensively.
Advantage: INDIANS
But… How much running do either of these teams do at the top of their lineup?
Dustin Pedroia (2B) .317/.380/.442
Asdrubal Cabrera (2B) .283/.354/.421
Rookie against rookie… I’ll take Pedroia for his ability to make consistent contact. Furthermore, Cabrera seems to spend an awful lot of time laying down sac bunts. This severely limits his potential contribution to the Indians lineup.
Advantage: RED SOX
But… Neither distinguished himself in the ALDS.
Bottom of the Order:
JD Drew (RF) .270/.373/.423
Franklin Gutierrez (RF) .266/.318/.472
Drew and Gutierrez are seemingly opposites as hitters. Drew will draw a walk while Gutierrez hit for better power this year. I would call it a wash, except Drew finished the season with an excellent September. Furthermore, Gutierrez will be fighting a hefty platoon split for the entire series. Trot Nixon could see some action, but he just isn’t all that good any more.
Advantage: RED SOX
But… Drew can be horrible when he is in a slump. At least Gutierrez isn’t going to look at a called third strike with runners in scoring position.
Jason Varitek (C) .255/.367/.421
Casey Blake (3B) .270/.339/.437
Varitek and Blake are two hitters that make a modest living off bad pitching but struggle to hit above .200 with runners in scoring position. Varitek at least has a little patience, while Blake’s line has nothing to recommend it.
Advantage: RED SOX
But… It will be a surprise if either comes through in a key spot.
Coco Crisp (CF) .268/.330/.382
Kenny Lofton (LF) .283/.344/.370
Lofton had an axe to grind against Torre and the Yankees, perhaps explaining his offensive explosion in the ALDS? I’m sure Crisp would also enjoy showing off against his old teammates. Both outfielders are more likely to make a difference with their gloves, or on the basepaths, than with their bats.
Advantage: EVEN
But… Lofton has the veteran mystique on his side.
Julio Lugo (SS) .237/.294/.349
Jhonny Peralta (SS) .270/.341/.430
Would you believe that Lugo’s second half numbers are better than Peralta’s? Neither looks to be much of a factor against good pitching — but if Lugo gets on base, he is at least a threat to run.
Advantage: EVEN
If pressed: Peralta has greater potential to hit one out of the park if somebody makes a mistake.
Conclusion:
The Red Sox scored only 56 more runs this year, a margin that could easily be attributed to park effects. Nonetheless, they outscored the Indians by *92* runs in the second half. The Red Sox have two premier bats against just one for the Indians, as well as a strong RBI producer in Mike Lowell that the Tribe cannot match. Neither team produces much from the #6-#9 positions, however the Red Sox at least have some players who can get on base and turn the lineup over.
Given the quality of the pitching in this series, I don’t expect many runs from either club. Still, the Red Sox have the more complete team — and the Indians pitchers are likely to find themselves working with runners on base in almost every inning. Though any playoff series is a coin flip, the Red Sox are deservedly favorites in this one.