10.11.07
Head-to-head: Red Sox vs. Indians pitching
I’ve been resisting the urge to make predictions (since a short series is practically a coin flip anyways), but how do the Red Sox and Indians pitchers compare?
#1 Starting Pitcher
Sabathia 3.21 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.80 K/9
Beckett 3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.70 K/9
Pick your poison. Sabathia was dominant throughout the regular season, tossing four complete games (a stat that has some predictive value for post-season success). Beckett has been used more cautiously but is just as good.
Advantage: EVEN
If pressed: Take Beckett on the basis of his three post-season shutouts.
#2 Starting Pitcher
Carmona 3.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5.73 K/9
Schilling 3.87 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.02 K/9
This is an odd comparison in that different people are likely to wildly overrate one or the other. Some will focus on the difference in ERA, giving a clear advantage to Carmona. Others may cite Schilling’s playoff record against Carmona’s inexperience “on the big stage”. I would suggest you consider two additional factors — Schilling’s full-season ERA is inflated by a bad June. Since his return, his averages look just as good as Carmona’s. On the other hand, it is likely that Schilling will be the first to hand the ball over to his pen.
Advantage: EVEN
If pressed: Take Carmona, for his ability to work 8-9 innings.
#3 Starting Pitcher
Westbrook 4.32 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 5.51 K/9
Matsuzaka 4.40 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.84 K/9
Don’t let the ERA fool you — Matsuzaka is a MUCH better pitcher than Westbrook. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, their seasons have turned in opposite directions. Westbrook has been solid in the second half while Matsuzaka has struggled with fatigue and command. I’m betting that the additional rest will benefit Daisuke here, allowing his greater talent (and dizzying array of pitches) to shine through.
Advantage: RED SOX
But… Matsuzaka hasn’t been consistent this year.
#4 Starting Pitcher
Byrd 4.59 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.12 K/9
Wakefield 4.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 5.24 K/9
Strikeout pitchers tend to fare better in the playoffs, suggesting that this could be a high-scoring game. Yet neither of these veterans is likely to rattle easily; both have had consistent success over their careers at pitching to contact. If both pitchers are on their game, it comes down to which lineup is best able to make the balls in play count.
Advantage: RED SOX
But… Who knows what to expect from Wakefield after two weeks on the shelf?
Closer
Borowski 5.07 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 7.95 K/9
Papelbon 1.85 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 12.96 K/9
This comparison unequivocally favors the Red Sox. Papelbon doesn’t just have great numbers — he is more successful at every facet of the game. Furthermore, the Red Sox will not hesitate to use Paps for multiple innings if needed. Borowski is strictly a one-inning reliever. Less than that, if the inning begins with a left-handed hitter.
Advantage: RED SOX
But… This is a huge advantage. No ifs, ands, or buts here.
#1 Right-handed Reliever
Betancourt 1.47 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 9.08 K/9
Delcarmen 2.05 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 8.39 K/9
I like MDC. I trust MDC. But Rafael Betancourt has five excellent seasons under his belt now, while Delcarmen’s control has been known to occasionally make life interesting.
Advantage: INDIANS
But… If Eric Gagne somehow finds his way into the 8th inning, all bets are off.
#1 Left-handed Reliever
Perez 1.78 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 9.20 K/9
Okajima 2.22 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 8.22 K/9
The Red Sox made Okajima their #2 reliever early in the season and rode him hard. In contrast, Perez has put up most of these numbers in less critical situations and on a less stressful schedule.
Advantage: EVEN
If pressed: Take Perez, for his excellent work in the ALDS.
#2 Right-handed Reliever
Lewis 2.15 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 10.43 K/9
Timlin 3.42 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 5.04 K/9
Lewis is definitely the flashier reliever, though Timlin somehow continues to get the job done with smoke and mirrors. This comparison would be closer to even if we were putting Timlin up against Borowski and Lewis against Papelbon.
Advantage: INDIANS
But… If you like experience, Timlin’s your man.
#2 Lefty-One-Out-Guy
Fultz 2.92 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 6.81 K/9
Lopez 3.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 5.75 K/9
I doubt that you’ll see either of these pitchers in more than a limited role. Their numbers are similar, but I have to prefer Lopez for one simple reason — Ortiz is a VERY tough out with the game on the line.
Advantage: RED SOX
But… Neither will throw complete innings, so their success will depend on the pitchers around them.
Overall Advantage: Red Sox
I see little to differentiate the rotations. Carmona is a bit better than Schilling, but that is balanced by Matsuzaka/Wakefield vs. Westbrook/Byrd in games 3 and 4. I fully expect the first six innings of each game to be hard-fought affairs.
Beyond that, we see two deep bullpens. The Indians have the advantage of youth and durability. Betancourt, Perez and Lewis aren’t that much better than Delcarmen, Okajima and Timlin, however the Indians trio should be good for a few more innings over the course of the series. Don’t be surprised if we see multiple extra-inning affairs in which this depth is tested.
The only clear and obvious advantage for either team is the matchup of the Indians weakest pitcher against the Red Sox best. This is such a complete mismatch that I would hesitate to even make the comparison, except for one simple truth. For better or for worse, Borowski and Papelbon have consistently pitched the ninth in close games. These pitchers lead their bullpens in “leverage”, meaning that over the course of the season their innings have been the most significant. If the Red Sox can keep the games close in the ninth, the Red Sox will prove that this advantage can make a big difference.