11.22.07

Three Bad Signings

Posted in Baseball at 12:44 pm by Valentine

While I’ve often harped on the excesses of the free agent market, and the futility of attempting to “build” a team through signing aging veterans, I am stunned by three contracts that were announced yesterday. Curiously, my reasons for disliking the deals are different in each case.

Torii Hunter, $90M/5yrs from the Angels

Torii Hunter is a pretty good player. He plays good defense in CF and regularly puts up 25-30 home runs. His career averages of .271/.324/.469 sell him short as he put in 800 PA before his power developed; these days he is more of a .275/.335/.485 hitter. He would be considered a solid offensive contributor in right field and is definitely a plus in CF. Baseball Prospectus rates him at a +5.5 WARP in each of the last two seasons.

Hunter is a reasonable bet to maintain some approximation of his production over the next five years. I imagine he’ll lose a bit off his batting average and power, but his defense is likely to hold steady and (other than 2005) he has been reasonably durable over his career. PECOTA projects declining PT (as it does with all older players, reflecting the possibility that they will retire or be moved to a bench role) but fairly steady production. If Torii can stay in the lineup he likely won’t be much worse in 2012 than in 2007.

My issue with this signing hearkens back to my first line. Torii Hunter is a pretty good player. Even accounting for positional expectations, he is barely a top-fifty bat in his best years. Any argument for Hunter rests on his ability to remain “pretty good” for an extended period of time; for that the Angels are paying $90M and their first-round draft pick. If he could be guaranteed to sustain his 2006-2007 level of play, Nate Silver’s MORP calculation suggests a valuation of around $16M/year. Using a more realistic projection he belongs in the $13M-$14M range. For once my concern is not the number of years — it’s the implied valuation. I see this deal as the rough equivalent of paying ARod $350M/10yr. You can almost advance a plausible argument for the number, but when you step back and take a hard look at the whole it is just too much.

Furthermore, I don’t see the Angels as a particularly good fit for Hunter. Guerrero and Anderson are already under contract for 2008 with options for 2009 (though they might not exercise the option on Anderson). Matthews is signed for another four years and is paid too richly to slot as a fourth outfielder. Reggie Willits is a pretty good player himself. Don’t forget Figgins, either, who is much better defensively in the OF than at either 3B or 2B.

Why add another “pretty good” player to this mix? The addition of Hunter does allow the Angels an excellent defensive set, with Willits in LF, Hunter in CF, and Matthews in RF (Vlad at DH). In other games they can play Anderson in LF, or Morales at DH (Vlad in RF), for a little more offense. Nonetheless this is only a modest improvement over what they already had available. Rather than commit a sixth of their payroll to a less-than-special player, they ought to have saved their pennies until a better opportunity came along.

Conclusion: Torii Hunter is a good player and a good bet to perform, just overpriced and a poor fit for the Angels.

Scott Linebrink, $19M/4yrs from the White Sox

My argument against Linebrink is best viewed as a trend.

2004 181 *ERA+, 1.036 WHIP, 32.6 Adjusted Runs Prevented
2005 210 *ERA+, 1.059 WHIP, 22.3 ARP
2006 113 *ERA+, 1.216 WHIP, 12.6 ARP
2007 113 *ERA+, 1.322 WHIP, 7.1 ARP

For comparison, Mike Timlin in 2007: 138 *ERA+, 1.084 WHIP, 11.4 ARP

Linebrink was one of the premier relievers in the majors in 2004-2005, but he is two years removed from that level of performance. His H/9 and HR/9 are up, his K/9 is down, and he is a fly-ball pitcher moving from one of the toughest HR parks in the majors to one of the best. I don’t expect him to be particularly good in 2008, and he’ll likely be a disaster by 2010. How many years was that again?

Conclusion: The White Sox are paying for past performance, not future expectations.

Jason Kendall, 1yr plus vesting option from the Brewers

Kendall was once a very good player. From 1997 to 2000 he was among the best in the majors, and he wasn’t too shabby in 2003-2004 either. Yet over the past three years he can charitably be described as a “punchless” hitter. Despite a .271 BA, he has averages of only .339/.325 over that span. Thoroughly mediocre…

Now that alone would not be enough to pan the signing. There are a handful of starting catchers who are similarly inept offensively, including Brian Schneider and Gerald Laird. Yet take a look at their defense. Gerald Laird has an excellent throwing arm, nailing 40% of the runners who tested him this year. He makes a few more errors than I would like, including 9 passed balls, but overall he adds value with his glove. Schneider is also a strong defender. Only five passed balls, six errors, and a 31% CS rate. His reputation is better known around the league, explaining the comparatively low number of attempts against him, but there is no question that he is solid.

In contrast to these two, Jason Kendall was the WORST defensive catcher in the majors. Nine errors and twelve passed balls are just the beginning — he threw out only 20 of 131 thieves this year for an abysmal 15% rate. Baseball is a game of percentages, so the difference between a 15% CS rate and a 30% CS rate is huge. Baserunners ran on Kendall much as they run on Tim Wakefield, but Kendall isn’t catching the knuckleball. Even worse, Kendall is credited with only 5 CS on 57 attempts following the trade to the Cubs. A leadoff walk is as good as a double with him behind the plate.

Kendall has a reputation for calling a good game, but there are other catchers who can fill that bill and either hit or throw a little. The Brewers already have a very weak defensive club and they just moved to make it even weaker. They have enough punch in the lineup to believe themselves contenders. They may even occasionally make the post-season. But it is hard to imagine them mustering enough offense to overcome their defensive ineptitude in October.

Conclusion: Kendall has no value remaining as a player. I could perhaps see signing him as a third catcher to a minor league deal, but he is one of the worst available options to start.

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