02.18.08

Catching Alternatives

Posted in Baseball at 12:59 pm by Valentine

This article was originally posted at New England Sports Country.

It has been YEARS since we really needed to worry about the player behind the plate. Is it time? The players involved…

Jason Varitek:
2006 34 .238/.325/.400 (.243/.331/.411 before his injury)
2007 35 .255/.367/.421
2008 36 .255/.352/.420 (PECOTA)

Of all the catchers in the PECOTA database, Varitek has the tenth strongest projected offense. More to the point, there are only four catchers whose projections are meaningfully better: Posada, Martinez, Mauer, and Martin. There should be no immediate concern over his performance, either at the plate or behind it.

Rather, the concern is that his performance and durability will slip as he gets into his late thirties. PECOTA projects only 384 PA for Varitek this year, a far cry from his usual ~525 and a reflection of the simple fact that catchers rarely age well. Do we go with the population averages? Or trust in his work ethic to make him an exception to the rule? Posada’s four-year deal has been widely cited, but Yankees fans expect that his future is at first base or DH. Varitek’s offensive production would not justify such a move.

Doug Mirabelli:
2006 35 .191/.267/.328
2007 36 .202/.278/.360
2008 37 .214/.294/.354 (PECOTA)

Dougie has been a great receiver for Wakefield over the years, a steady defensive presence and a surprisingly powerful hitter. But that ship has sailed — he will still poke an occasional home run, but his strikeout rate continues to rise and that projected .214 average seems very optimistic to me. Will he survive the season as Wakefield’s caddy?

George Kottaras:
2006 AA .275/.381/.473 (MLE)
2006 AAA .198/.269/.339 (MLE)
2007 AAA .225/.294/.389 (MLE)
2008 25 .238/.313/.372 (PECOTA)

Kottaras is the most advanced of the Red Sox minor leaguers. Those projections aren’t awful, ranking him as a middle-of-the-pack backup, but they aren’t going to merit a starting job. The good news is that he finished the season with strong performances in both July and August. The bad news is that 17 errors and 20 passed balls over the last two years isn’t going to keep the Fenway hounds at bay. Can he redeem his “prospect status” or will he fade into the sunset like Jose Malave?

Dusty Brown:
2006 AA .224/.284/.332 (raw stats)
2007 AA .236/.302/.409 (MLE)
2008 26 .235/.282/.371 (ZiPS)

Going by his defensive reputation, Dusty Brown might be the most likely replacement for Mirabelli. I’m suspicious, however, that this may simply be an application of Nichols’ Law of Catcher Defense: defensive reputations are inversely proportional to offensive production. Brown has been responsible for 30 passed balls and 16 errors over the past two years, hardly impressive numbers. And even if his defense is truly excellent, his bat is a long way from the majors. Has anybody seen enough of his work to comment first-hand?

I have intentionally omitted Mark Wagner and other catchers lower in the system. They have some talent but are too far from the majors to contribute this year or project with any kind of certainty. Wagner will try his bat at Portland in 2008, a test that has the potential to make or break him.

Looking abroad, I’ll bring up three names of possible interest (you might consider them representatives of the range of possibilities, as I definitely do not consider this a comprehensive list):

Ramon Hernandez:
2006 30 .275/.343/.479
2007 31 .258/.333/.382
2008 32 .252/.327/.399 (PECOTA)

Hernandez is your typical aging catcher. Despite a four-year run of success at his peak, PECOTA isn’t anticipating much of a rebound. His defense and game-calling have been considered strengths, yet there are signs that he might be slipping there. Signed for too many dollars, too many years, for a team with no hope of immediate contention and a rising star that they hope to bring up rapidly. Hernandez could be available for the proverbial song at the end of 2008. But is he in any way superior to Varitek?

Kenji Johjima:
2006 30 .291/.332/.451
2007 31 .287/.322/.433
2008 32 .274/.319/.395 (PECOTA)

Though superficially a close match for Ramon Hernandez, Johjima distinguishes himself in two regards. First, he is an exceptional catch-and-throw receiver who adds significant tangible value with his defense. Second, he is a free agent (we think — the Seattle P-I certainly believes so). While Hernandez can likely be had for a “B” prospect and the assumption of his remaining deal (1 year plus a team option), Johjima will likely command a three- or four-year guarantee. Is that too much for a catcher with average peak offense who is entering his mid thirties?

Taylor Teagarden:
2006 22 –missed essentially the entire season with TJ surgery–
2007 A+ .235/.352/.436 (MLE)
2007 AA .202/.267/.394 (MLE)
2008 24 .216/.311/.392 (PECOTA)

Teagarden appears to have fully recovered from the surgery, though there is always concern of a relapse. While his MLE’s aren’t terribly impressive, his line-drive swing is a favorite of the scouts. Now blocked by Saltalamacchia, Teagarden could presumably be acquired for a strong prospect (e.g. Lowrie). Would he add enough to the Red Sox system to be worth that kind of a price?

In conclusion, I don’t see any alternatives that are clearly superior to what we already have. Jason Varitek may be aging, but he keeps himself in great shape and continues to handle his defensive duties with his usual aplomb. Declining bat speed? Sure, but he remains a superior hitter to anybody we are likely to find. Do you recall anybody else who might legitimately hope for a .350 OBP or expect to surpass a .400 SLG?

Even if we could potentially replace Varitek with somebody marginally better and marginally cheaper, I believe it would be a foolish move for the organization. Naming him the “Captain” was both a reflection of the esteem the organization and his teammates hold for him and a symbolic gesture that cannot be lightly reversed. Some day it will be time for Varitek to step into a backup role or retire, but that day is still in the future. All parties involved understand this situation — I expect he will be signed without controversy to a two-year extension this spring.

02.10.08

Schilling: Will the Red Sox survive his loss?

Posted in Baseball at 3:16 pm by Valentine

Bad news on Curt Schilling: a tendon in his shoulder is apparently separating longitudinally, resulting in massive inflammation and pain.  Will Carroll seems to believe that Schilling might return by the All-Star Break.  Dr. Craig Morgan seems to believe that is impossible without surgery.   I have nothing to add to the prognosis, but what are the implications for the Red Sox in 2008?

  1. Beckett  –  30 starts, 3.64 ERA
  2. Matsuzaka  –  30 starts, 3.90 ERA
  3. Buchholz  –  27 starts, 4.08 ERA
  4. Lester  –  27 starts, 4.93 ERA
  5. Wakefield  –  20 starts, 4.86 ERA

The ERAs are from the newly-released 2008 PECOTA projections.  The estimated starts are my own, allowing for a couple skipped starts or a quick trip to the DL for both Beckett and Matsuzaka, an approximate 165-180 innings for each of the kids, and a little less than four months of health for Wakefield.  These are reasonably conservative estimates, though a major injury to one of the front four could derail them.

This is a very strong rotation!  Buchholz’ projection tabs him as the #32 starting pitcher (by ERA) in the majors.  Lester and Wakefield’s projections are both solidly average (and there is reason to hope that each will improve on those numbers when healthy).  I have no qualms about the quality of any of these arms.  Yet if you count up the projected starts, it seems unlikely that these five will be enough.  The above estimates total only 134 GS, with at least a couple dozen starts left over no matter how you slice it.  Who might take the mound in those games?  Two possibilities, both projected by PECOTA in a “Swing” role:

  • Tavarez  –  15 starts, 5.14 ERA
  • Hansack  –  15 starts, 5.09 ERA

Julian Tavarez started 23 games for the Red Sox in 2007, though he was clearly tiring by July.  My projection of 15 GS is hopefully low enough to keep him reasonably fresh and effective, especially if they do not come in consecutive turns of the rotation.  He is a competent pitcher, allowing 3 or fewer runs through 5 or more innings in 13 of his 23 starts.  There are many superior pitchers out there, but none that are freely available.

Devern Hansack is a 30-year old rookie, recalled a few years back from the shrimp boats in his native Nicaragua.  He pitched briefly in the majors in both 2006 and 2007, with ambiguous results, but has never really had the opportunity to prove himself at that level.  His minor league numbers are promising:

2006 Portland (AA) 3.27 ERA, 132 IP, 122 H, 14 HR, 36 BB, 124 K
2007 Pawtucket (AAA) 3.61 ERA, 139.2 IP, 126 H, 16 HR, 40 BB, 131 K

Hansack is too old to have any real hope of further improvement, but those minor league lines translate to at least brief utility in the majors.  He still has at least one “option” remaining, so the Red Sox can shuttle him back and forth between Pawtucket and the majors as often as is necessary in 2008.  This flexibility is a mixed blessing for Hansack.  It almost guarantees that he will not break camp with the club, beginning the season at AAA, yet it also makes him a prime candidate to be the “first into the breach” if there is an injury in the rotation requiring a DL move.  (Craig Hansen is in a similar situation in the bullpen.)  He will get his chances this year, especially if he impresses in Spring Training.

In conclusion, my answers to the Questions of the Day:

Question 1: Can the Red Sox cover all 162 starts without digging up Jason Johnson?

Answer: Barring a season-ending injury to one of the front four, this should not be a problem.  Even with the innings-restriction on the kids, we can still reasonably hope for ~134 starts from our front-line pitchers.  Tavarez and Hansack should be able to cover whatever remains.

Question 2: Should Theo give Josh Fogg or Livan Hernandez a call?

Answer: No way!  Neither Fogg nor Hernandez is at all an improvement over Tavarez/Hansack.  They might be reasonable alternatives for a team with an open spot in the rotation, but the Red Sox have five quality pitchers.  We’re just looking for depth behind them.

Question 3: Does the loss of Schilling sink the team?

Answer: Is the sky falling?  We were hoping for ~120 innings of a 4.18 ERA out of Schilling.  Now it looks like we will be forced to substitute ~120 innings from Tavarez or Hansack, with an ERA about one run higher.  The cost?  Roughly one expected win.  This doesn’t help the team, but there is only a small chance that this will be a critical factor.

Question 4: Any silver linings?

Answer: Before Schilling went down, we were wondering how Buchholz would get his starts.  Move Wakefield to the pen?  Lester?  Let Buchholz expend his innings in the minors while waiting his chance?  The Red Sox have fewer resources available today than before the injury, however the situation allows them to be deployed more efficiently.