02.10.08

Schilling: Will the Red Sox survive his loss?

Posted in Baseball at 3:16 pm by Valentine

Bad news on Curt Schilling: a tendon in his shoulder is apparently separating longitudinally, resulting in massive inflammation and pain.  Will Carroll seems to believe that Schilling might return by the All-Star Break.  Dr. Craig Morgan seems to believe that is impossible without surgery.   I have nothing to add to the prognosis, but what are the implications for the Red Sox in 2008?

1. Beckett  –  30 starts, 3.64 ERA
2. Matsuzaka  –  30 starts, 3.90 ERA
3. Buchholz  –  27 starts, 4.08 ERA
4. Lester  –  27 starts, 4.93 ERA
5. Wakefield  –  20 starts, 4.86 ERA

The ERAs are from the newly-released 2008 PECOTA projections.  The estimated starts are my own, allowing for a couple skipped starts or a quick trip to the DL for both Beckett and Matsuzaka, an approximate 165-180 innings for each of the kids, and a little less than four months of health for Wakefield.  These are reasonably conservative estimates, though a major injury to one of the front four could derail them.

This is a very strong rotation!  Buchholz’ projection tabs him as the #32 starting pitcher (by ERA) in the majors.  Lester and Wakefield’s projections are both solidly average (and there is reason to hope that each will improve on those numbers when healthy).  I have no qualms about the quality of any of these arms.  Yet if you count up the projected starts, it seems unlikely that these five will be enough.  The above estimates total only 134 GS, with at least a couple dozen starts left over no matter how you slice it.  Who might take the mound in those games?  Two possibilities, both projected by PECOTA in a “Swing” role:

• Tavarez  –  15 starts, 5.14 ERA
• Hansack  –  15 starts, 5.09 ERA

Julian Tavarez started 23 games for the Red Sox in 2007, though he was clearly tiring by July.  My projection of 15 GS is hopefully low enough to keep him reasonably fresh and effective, especially if they do not come in consecutive turns of the rotation.  He is a competent pitcher, allowing 3 or fewer runs through 5 or more innings in 13 of his 23 starts.  There are many superior pitchers out there, but none that are freely available.

Devern Hansack is a 30-year old rookie, recalled a few years back from the shrimp boats in his native Nicaragua.  He pitched briefly in the majors in both 2006 and 2007, with ambiguous results, but has never really had the opportunity to prove himself at that level.  His minor league numbers are promising:

2006 Portland (AA) 3.27 ERA, 132 IP, 122 H, 14 HR, 36 BB, 124 K
2007 Pawtucket (AAA) 3.61 ERA, 139.2 IP, 126 H, 16 HR, 40 BB, 131 K

Hansack is too old to have any real hope of further improvement, but those minor league lines translate to at least brief utility in the majors.  He still has at least one “option” remaining, so the Red Sox can shuttle him back and forth between Pawtucket and the majors as often as is necessary in 2008.  This flexibility is a mixed blessing for Hansack.  It almost guarantees that he will not break camp with the club, beginning the season at AAA, yet it also makes him a prime candidate to be the “first into the breach” if there is an injury in the rotation requiring a DL move.  (Craig Hansen is in a similar situation in the bullpen.)  He will get his chances this year, especially if he impresses in Spring Training.

In conclusion, my answers to the Questions of the Day:

Question 1: Can the Red Sox cover all 162 starts without digging up Jason Johnson?

Answer: Barring a season-ending injury to one of the front four, this should not be a problem.  Even with the innings-restriction on the kids, we can still reasonably hope for ~134 starts from our front-line pitchers.  Tavarez and Hansack should be able to cover whatever remains.

Question 2: Should Theo give Josh Fogg or Livan Hernandez a call?

Answer: No way!  Neither Fogg nor Hernandez is at all an improvement over Tavarez/Hansack.  They might be reasonable alternatives for a team with an open spot in the rotation, but the Red Sox have five quality pitchers.  We’re just looking for depth behind them.

Question 3: Does the loss of Schilling sink the team?

Answer: Is the sky falling?  We were hoping for ~120 innings of a 4.18 ERA out of Schilling.  Now it looks like we will be forced to substitute ~120 innings from Tavarez or Hansack, with an ERA about one run higher.  The cost?  Roughly one expected win.  This doesn’t help the team, but there is only a small chance that this will be a critical factor.

Question 4: Any silver linings?

Answer: Before Schilling went down, we were wondering how Buchholz would get his starts.  Move Wakefield to the pen?  Lester?  Let Buchholz expend his innings in the minors while waiting his chance?  The Red Sox have fewer resources available today than before the injury, however the situation allows them to be deployed more efficiently.

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