04.16.08
Posted in Baseball at 11:42 am by Valentine
Old habits are hard to break! For many Red Sox fans, this means an immediate tendency to panic over even the smallest bumps in the road. Yet I can’t help but be optimistic at this point. Our hitters have pounded out a .280/.351/.425 line, while our pitchers have held opponents to a measly .233/.339/.359. Buried in these numbers, a full eleven of the 66 runs allowed were coughed up in just six innings by a pair of journeyman relievers who are no longer on the roster (and arguably should never have been on the roster). It is hard to imagine how their struggles would reflect on the team hopes going forward. They may have a zero run differential, with an imbalanced 3-0 record in one-run games, but I believe the 9-6 record is a better reflection of this teams’ resilience than the simple RS/RA would indicate.
Some lines from the first fifteen games:
Kevin Youkilis .385/.452/.635, 52 AB, 20 H, 8 2B/3B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 5 K
JD Drew .316/.400/.579, 38 AB, 12 H, 1 2B/3B, 3 HR, 6 BB, 13 K
Manny Ramirez .293/.359/.586, 58 AB, 17 H, 7 2B/3B, 3 HR, 5 BB, 18 K
Youkilis has been outstanding in the early going, working pitchers for a plus BB-K ratio while driving the ball for line-drive power. Youkilis has hit well in the first half before, so the key here will be to maintain his strength and intensity for the full season. JD Drew is striking out more often than usual, perhaps a reflection of the cold weather? That is still a promising performance, especially in the power department. Manny Ramirez is also striking out a lot, but he is punishing the ball in his remaining AB. Ten XBH in two weeks (including a triple!) bodes ill for AL hurlers.
Jacoby Ellsbury .280/.424/.400, 25 AB, 7 H, 0 2B/3B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 3 K
Sean Casey .280/.357/.400, 25 AB, 7 H, 3 2B/3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
Dustin Pedroia .311/.368/.377, 61 AB, 19 H, 4 2B/3B, 0 HR, 6 BB, 8 K
Coco Crisp .325/.349/.375, 40 AB, 13 H, 2 2B/3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 7 K
Julio Lugo .280/.321/.320, 50 AB, 14 H, 2 2B/3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 7 KIt is hard to miss the common thread for this group. All are hitting for quality averages. None are hitting for power. Ellsbury has been particularly impressive, drawing seven walks (including one intentional, surely a novel experience!) against only three strikeouts. Casey and Pedroia are executing a similar game, albeit less successfully, while Crisp and Lugo could use a little more secondary production in their lines.
Jason Varitek .261/.292/.522, 46 AB, 12 H, 3 2B/3B, 3 HR, 2 BB, 11 K
Kevin Cash .200/.200/.300, 10 AB, 2 H, 1 2B/3B, 0 HR, 0 BB, 5 K
Mike Lowell .200/.294/.200, 30 AB, 6 H, 0 2B/3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 5 K
David Ortiz .113/.242/.170, 53 AB, 6 H, 0 2B/3B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 12 K
Varitek is hitting for power, perhaps the result of his well-publicized off-season workouts, but his K/BB ratio troubles me. Is he turning into Doug Mirabelli? With only 10 AB, I wouldn’t normally include Cash yet in this report, but he offers a worrisome referent for the struggles of Lowell and Ortiz. It is far too soon to give up on our veteran sluggers. After all, Manny Ramirez hit .202 last April and still turned in a quality season. Still, Ortiz’ slump is much worse even than what he went through. I would consider sliding Ortiz down in the lineup (perhaps swapping him with Drew at #6) until his bat gets going.
D. Matsuzaka 3-0, 23.1 IP, 5.0 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 5.8 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 2.70 ERA
Tim Wakefield 1-0, 17.0 IP, 8.5 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 6.4 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 3.18 ERA
Clay Buchholz 0-1, 11.0 IP, 8.2 H/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.1 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 3.27 ERA
Jon Lester 1-2, 20.1 IP, 8.0 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 6.6 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 5.31 ERA
Josh Beckett 1-1, 11.1 IP, 6.4 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 6.35 ERA
These are some unbelievable numbers! The K/9 is roughly what you would expect for these pitchers (a little low for Lester, a little high for Wakefield). The HR/9 is a little depressed, likely due to the cold weather. But those walk rates?!? You can’t blame it all on the weather, since the Red Sox hitters (normally fairly patient) have walked 20 fewer times than their opponents. We can come up with plenty of possible reasons or excuses for wildness over the first two weeks, but this will HAVE to change. Our starters haven’t finished seven innings even ONCE this year, so despite the 6-4 record and 4.01 ERA that the rotation boasts you can’t truly say they are getting the job done. The bullpen can survive a little extra work in April, but it will never last all season at this rate.
Okajima .095/.200/.095, 6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
Papelbon .200/.231/.280, 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 14 K
Aardsma .143/.294/.250, 8.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 6 BB, 7 K
Delcarmen .235/.297/.441, 9.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
Total: 30.2 IP, 19 H, 6 ER, 12 BB, 34 K, 1.01 WHIP, 1.76 ERA
I believe these four will form the core of our bullpen this year, getting 80% or more of the high- and moderate-leverage innings. Aardsma can be wild, as you see, but he has undeniably nasty stuff. Farrell seems to have the “fix” for his problems, at least in the early going, and his workload will be managed more cautiously than it was last spring. None of these relievers have any particular platoon splits, so Francona can work them in fewer, longer outings — a good way to get more innings out of a reliever.
Tavarez .292/.393/.292, 6.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
Lopez .316/.435/.474, 4.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
Timlin .625/.625/1.500, 1.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 1 K
Total: 12.1 IP, 18 H, 9 ER, 6 BB, 8 K, 1.95 WHIP, 6.57 ERA
This part of the pen gets a little scary, yet all three have looked good over the last few games. You have to believe they will settle down somewhat, though they will continue to allow a high BAA. Tavarez has yet to allow an extra base hit, while Lopez has given up only one unfortunate home run, so they do have some strengths.
Corey .429/.455/.667, 4.1 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
Snyder .333/.500/.833, 1.2 IP, 2 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
Totals: too ugly to compute
I admit, I had some hopes for Corey. Despite solid performances in spring training, neither of these two got much of a chance to prove themselves in the regular season. I can’t fault the choice, however. Both became expendable when Aardsma was acquired.
The overall bullpen averages fail to capture the dominance of the four featured arms at its core, reflecting instead a slew of “garbage inning” runs allowed by some of the lesser lights. As a whole, the bullpen has two blown saves and a 2-2 record. Perfect? Not yet, and I think they can do better. But these are definitely above-average results for a relief corps that has been worked as hard as this one.
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04.11.08
Posted in Baseball at 11:18 am by Valentine
Consider the dynamics of the off-season for a Red Sox fan. In the fall we catch pennant fever, making every catch, bloop, or blunder into a karmic event that defines a player past, present, and future. This carries over into the winter, four months of hype during which our vivid impressions from October feed on themselves endlessly, growing into some monstrous imaginary construct. By February we know how the season will unfold. We know the Tigers will shatter the record books for runs scored in a season. We know Beckett will win the Cy Young award that eluded him in 2007. We know the Red Sox are a shoo-in for another World Series crown. Spring training feeds this hyperbole. Is a Favored Player slumping? No worry, it’s only spring training. Does a prospect go 3-5 against a series of AAA pitchers? Hype him up! Injuries are blown way out of proportion at this time. Even a minor muscle pull that costs your ace two starts will be interpreted as a sign that this Just Isn’t His Year.
Neither does this tendency to overreact improve with the next turn of the calendar. Suddenly we have Official Numbers on the statistical record, superceding those 2007 results that informed the Hot Stove chatter. No longer do we look at what a player did the previous year, or over his career. As a result of his Series-clinching victory over the Rockies in October, Lester was the darling of the chat boards all winter. Many took that as a clear indication that he was ready to Step Up and be a front-line starter. Yet now, after three starts in which he has struggled with inconsistent command, Lester is being dismissed as a liability in the rotation. Reality, of course, is somewhere in between. He is a talented young pitcher, as his World Series start proved, but he is young. Consistency is slow to develop, and must needs be proven over months rather than in a single game.
While we cannot truly learn anything new from the first ten games, we can perhaps use this opportunity to dispel myths that were built up over the last six months. Some observations:
- JD Drew is hitting .440/.483/.720 in the early going, after flashing some impressive power in the final exhibition games. Prior to 2007, he has always been productive when healthy.
- Kevin Youkilis is hitting .324/.415/.529 over the first ten games. In each of the last two seasons, he has been a terrific hitter before wearing down in the second half. If Casey can spell him, perhaps he can maintain that success all year?
- Coco Crisp and Julio Lugo are hitting .300 in the early going, reminding us that even last year they had substantial streaks of success (which unfortunately got buried by their early-season slumps).
- Jacoby Ellsbury is hitting .176, evidence that even talented players can’t always expect everything to break their way. The talent gap between Ellsbury and Crisp is smaller than it is made out to be.
- David Ortiz is 3-36 with only one home run and is looking awkward at the plate. Even great players ultimately succumb to age and injury, and heavy 1B/DH types often fare more poorly than their athletic counterparts.
- Daisuke Matsuzaka has the talent to win a Cy Young. He showed us flashes of that last June, before tiring in the second half. If he can improve his stamina and consistency this year, he’s the equal of anybody in the league.
- Lester and Buchholz are rookies and will struggle with consistency at times. Have patience here.
- Snyder’s ERA last year was deceptively strong, masking mediocre peripherals and a habit of pitching poorly under pressure. Nor is Bryan Corey as good as he looked in September. Happily the Red Sox have four talented relievers who have looked strong in the early going, plus the always-dependable Timlin waiting in the wings.
So enjoy the return of baseball, but take the early season successes and failures in stride. Until a couple solid months of play are in the books, the pre-season expectations are more significant than anything we can glean from the current numbers.
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04.02.08
Posted in Baseball at 11:10 am by Valentine
Of hitting, pitching, defense, and the bullpen, which is most critical to a team’s success? In truth, it is difficult to make the playoffs if you are below average in any of these areas. A weak rotation places a heavy workload on the bullpen, straining those resources and often resulting in a snowballing collapse. Weak defense saps the confidence necessary for a pitcher to throw strikes. A weak bullpen can demoralize the entire team, blowing wins that everybody thought were in the bag. And weak hitting? Ask the 2007 Blue Jays how well that recipe works. Starting pitching may be the key to success in the playoffs, but a team needs multiple strengths to reach the playoffs.
That said, I believe the key to the Red Sox in 2008 will be the maturation of Daisuke Matsuzaka. We know the defense will be solid. The bullpen is as strong and deep as any in the majors. The offense is a known mix of strengths and weaknesses, overall solid if less than exceptional. Thus one major question mark remains: “Will this rotation work?”
We can count on Beckett to be good. His back injury was briefly concerning, however he appears to have recovered nicely having missed only a single start. But after that? While Wakefield, Lester, Buchholz, and Colon are all competent pitchers, none can carry the innings or expectations of a #2 starter. That burden falls on the shoulders of Matsuzaka.
Now I’ve been writing for months that Matsuzaka’s 2007 performance doesn’t get the respect it deserves. In the context of a hitters park in the AL East, a 4.40 ERA is reasonably strong. Mix in a 200+ inning workload, 15 wins overcoming inconsistent run support, plus zero unearned runs, and you can make a case that he was one of the better #2 starters in the league last year. Yet he tired as the season went on and was strictly a 5-inning pitcher in the playoffs. Last year Schilling stepped up in the final months. This year Matsuzaka will need to finish the job himself.
More than anything else, Daisuke needs to improve his command of the strike zone. He finished sixth in the league with 80 walks, behind only the young (Scott Kazmir, Edwin Jackson, Chad Gaudin) and the mediocre (Daniel Cabrera, Miguel Batista). His inconsistent command led to too many baserunners, too many high-stress pitches thrown from the stretch, and too many fat pitches driven for home runs. It is a testament to his skill that he was nonetheless successful, but there is obvious room for improvement. Of the top 12 AL pitchers in strikeouts, Matsuzaka was the only one with an ERA over 3.85. If he can reduce his walk rate by even 25%, he’ll be the equal of Verlander, Haren, or Sabathia.
So what have we learned in the early going? His control in the first few innings of his first start was shockingly poor, and he ended with five walks over five innings. His second start was the complete opposite, featuring nine strikeouts with no walks. Will he continue to be inconsistent, inexplicably losing his fastball command for an inning at a time as he did last year? Or is his strong second start a sign of things to come? The answer to that question will likely determine the fate of the Red Sox in 2008.
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