04.02.08
Key to Success: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Of hitting, pitching, defense, and the bullpen, which is most critical to a team’s success? In truth, it is difficult to make the playoffs if you are below average in any of these areas. A weak rotation places a heavy workload on the bullpen, straining those resources and often resulting in a snowballing collapse. Weak defense saps the confidence necessary for a pitcher to throw strikes. A weak bullpen can demoralize the entire team, blowing wins that everybody thought were in the bag. And weak hitting? Ask the 2007 Blue Jays how well that recipe works. Starting pitching may be the key to success in the playoffs, but a team needs multiple strengths to reach the playoffs.
That said, I believe the key to the Red Sox in 2008 will be the maturation of Daisuke Matsuzaka. We know the defense will be solid. The bullpen is as strong and deep as any in the majors. The offense is a known mix of strengths and weaknesses, overall solid if less than exceptional. Thus one major question mark remains: “Will this rotation work?”
We can count on Beckett to be good. His back injury was briefly concerning, however he appears to have recovered nicely having missed only a single start. But after that? While Wakefield, Lester, Buchholz, and Colon are all competent pitchers, none can carry the innings or expectations of a #2 starter. That burden falls on the shoulders of Matsuzaka.
Now I’ve been writing for months that Matsuzaka’s 2007 performance doesn’t get the respect it deserves. In the context of a hitters park in the AL East, a 4.40 ERA is reasonably strong. Mix in a 200+ inning workload, 15 wins overcoming inconsistent run support, plus zero unearned runs, and you can make a case that he was one of the better #2 starters in the league last year. Yet he tired as the season went on and was strictly a 5-inning pitcher in the playoffs. Last year Schilling stepped up in the final months. This year Matsuzaka will need to finish the job himself.
More than anything else, Daisuke needs to improve his command of the strike zone. He finished sixth in the league with 80 walks, behind only the young (Scott Kazmir, Edwin Jackson, Chad Gaudin) and the mediocre (Daniel Cabrera, Miguel Batista). His inconsistent command led to too many baserunners, too many high-stress pitches thrown from the stretch, and too many fat pitches driven for home runs. It is a testament to his skill that he was nonetheless successful, but there is obvious room for improvement. Of the top 12 AL pitchers in strikeouts, Matsuzaka was the only one with an ERA over 3.85. If he can reduce his walk rate by even 25%, he’ll be the equal of Verlander, Haren, or Sabathia.
So what have we learned in the early going? His control in the first few innings of his first start was shockingly poor, and he ended with five walks over five innings. His second start was the complete opposite, featuring nine strikeouts with no walks. Will he continue to be inconsistent, inexplicably losing his fastball command for an inning at a time as he did last year? Or is his strong second start a sign of things to come? The answer to that question will likely determine the fate of the Red Sox in 2008.
Mike said,
April 2, 2008 at 11:59 am
For the moment, I prefer to err on the side of optimism, and chalk up the first game to a combination of having to readjust to the change in timezone and the jitters of a local boy who made good coming back home.
Certainly, Daisuke will need to show that he’s capable of consistently pitching the way he did last night, but given how he did bounce back, I see there being reason for optimism, certainly.