04.11.08
Breaking in a New Season
Consider the dynamics of the off-season for a Red Sox fan. In the fall we catch pennant fever, making every catch, bloop, or blunder into a karmic event that defines a player past, present, and future. This carries over into the winter, four months of hype during which our vivid impressions from October feed on themselves endlessly, growing into some monstrous imaginary construct. By February we know how the season will unfold. We know the Tigers will shatter the record books for runs scored in a season. We know Beckett will win the Cy Young award that eluded him in 2007. We know the Red Sox are a shoo-in for another World Series crown. Spring training feeds this hyperbole. Is a Favored Player slumping? No worry, it’s only spring training. Does a prospect go 3-5 against a series of AAA pitchers? Hype him up! Injuries are blown way out of proportion at this time. Even a minor muscle pull that costs your ace two starts will be interpreted as a sign that this Just Isn’t His Year.
Neither does this tendency to overreact improve with the next turn of the calendar. Suddenly we have Official Numbers on the statistical record, superceding those 2007 results that informed the Hot Stove chatter. No longer do we look at what a player did the previous year, or over his career. As a result of his Series-clinching victory over the Rockies in October, Lester was the darling of the chat boards all winter. Many took that as a clear indication that he was ready to Step Up and be a front-line starter. Yet now, after three starts in which he has struggled with inconsistent command, Lester is being dismissed as a liability in the rotation. Reality, of course, is somewhere in between. He is a talented young pitcher, as his World Series start proved, but he is young. Consistency is slow to develop, and must needs be proven over months rather than in a single game.
While we cannot truly learn anything new from the first ten games, we can perhaps use this opportunity to dispel myths that were built up over the last six months. Some observations:
- JD Drew is hitting .440/.483/.720 in the early going, after flashing some impressive power in the final exhibition games. Prior to 2007, he has always been productive when healthy.
- Kevin Youkilis is hitting .324/.415/.529 over the first ten games. In each of the last two seasons, he has been a terrific hitter before wearing down in the second half. If Casey can spell him, perhaps he can maintain that success all year?
- Coco Crisp and Julio Lugo are hitting .300 in the early going, reminding us that even last year they had substantial streaks of success (which unfortunately got buried by their early-season slumps).
- Jacoby Ellsbury is hitting .176, evidence that even talented players can’t always expect everything to break their way. The talent gap between Ellsbury and Crisp is smaller than it is made out to be.
- David Ortiz is 3-36 with only one home run and is looking awkward at the plate. Even great players ultimately succumb to age and injury, and heavy 1B/DH types often fare more poorly than their athletic counterparts.
- Daisuke Matsuzaka has the talent to win a Cy Young. He showed us flashes of that last June, before tiring in the second half. If he can improve his stamina and consistency this year, he’s the equal of anybody in the league.
- Lester and Buchholz are rookies and will struggle with consistency at times. Have patience here.
- Snyder’s ERA last year was deceptively strong, masking mediocre peripherals and a habit of pitching poorly under pressure. Nor is Bryan Corey as good as he looked in September. Happily the Red Sox have four talented relievers who have looked strong in the early going, plus the always-dependable Timlin waiting in the wings.
So enjoy the return of baseball, but take the early season successes and failures in stride. Until a couple solid months of play are in the books, the pre-season expectations are more significant than anything we can glean from the current numbers.