04.16.08
9-6, and all is well!
Old habits are hard to break! For many Red Sox fans, this means an immediate tendency to panic over even the smallest bumps in the road. Yet I can’t help but be optimistic at this point. Our hitters have pounded out a .280/.351/.425 line, while our pitchers have held opponents to a measly .233/.339/.359. Buried in these numbers, a full eleven of the 66 runs allowed were coughed up in just six innings by a pair of journeyman relievers who are no longer on the roster (and arguably should never have been on the roster). It is hard to imagine how their struggles would reflect on the team hopes going forward. They may have a zero run differential, with an imbalanced 3-0 record in one-run games, but I believe the 9-6 record is a better reflection of this teams’ resilience than the simple RS/RA would indicate.
Some lines from the first fifteen games:
Kevin Youkilis .385/.452/.635, 52 AB, 20 H, 8 2B/3B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 5 K
JD Drew .316/.400/.579, 38 AB, 12 H, 1 2B/3B, 3 HR, 6 BB, 13 K
Manny Ramirez .293/.359/.586, 58 AB, 17 H, 7 2B/3B, 3 HR, 5 BB, 18 K
Youkilis has been outstanding in the early going, working pitchers for a plus BB-K ratio while driving the ball for line-drive power. Youkilis has hit well in the first half before, so the key here will be to maintain his strength and intensity for the full season. JD Drew is striking out more often than usual, perhaps a reflection of the cold weather? That is still a promising performance, especially in the power department. Manny Ramirez is also striking out a lot, but he is punishing the ball in his remaining AB. Ten XBH in two weeks (including a triple!) bodes ill for AL hurlers.
Jacoby Ellsbury .280/.424/.400, 25 AB, 7 H, 0 2B/3B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 3 K
Sean Casey .280/.357/.400, 25 AB, 7 H, 3 2B/3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
Dustin Pedroia .311/.368/.377, 61 AB, 19 H, 4 2B/3B, 0 HR, 6 BB, 8 K
Coco Crisp .325/.349/.375, 40 AB, 13 H, 2 2B/3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 7 K
Julio Lugo .280/.321/.320, 50 AB, 14 H, 2 2B/3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 7 KIt is hard to miss the common thread for this group. All are hitting for quality averages. None are hitting for power. Ellsbury has been particularly impressive, drawing seven walks (including one intentional, surely a novel experience!) against only three strikeouts. Casey and Pedroia are executing a similar game, albeit less successfully, while Crisp and Lugo could use a little more secondary production in their lines.
Jason Varitek .261/.292/.522, 46 AB, 12 H, 3 2B/3B, 3 HR, 2 BB, 11 K
Kevin Cash .200/.200/.300, 10 AB, 2 H, 1 2B/3B, 0 HR, 0 BB, 5 K
Mike Lowell .200/.294/.200, 30 AB, 6 H, 0 2B/3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 5 K
David Ortiz .113/.242/.170, 53 AB, 6 H, 0 2B/3B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 12 K
Varitek is hitting for power, perhaps the result of his well-publicized off-season workouts, but his K/BB ratio troubles me. Is he turning into Doug Mirabelli? With only 10 AB, I wouldn’t normally include Cash yet in this report, but he offers a worrisome referent for the struggles of Lowell and Ortiz. It is far too soon to give up on our veteran sluggers. After all, Manny Ramirez hit .202 last April and still turned in a quality season. Still, Ortiz’ slump is much worse even than what he went through. I would consider sliding Ortiz down in the lineup (perhaps swapping him with Drew at #6) until his bat gets going.
D. Matsuzaka 3-0, 23.1 IP, 5.0 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 5.8 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 2.70 ERA
Tim Wakefield 1-0, 17.0 IP, 8.5 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 6.4 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 3.18 ERA
Clay Buchholz 0-1, 11.0 IP, 8.2 H/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.1 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 3.27 ERA
Jon Lester 1-2, 20.1 IP, 8.0 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 6.6 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 5.31 ERA
Josh Beckett 1-1, 11.1 IP, 6.4 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 6.35 ERA
These are some unbelievable numbers! The K/9 is roughly what you would expect for these pitchers (a little low for Lester, a little high for Wakefield). The HR/9 is a little depressed, likely due to the cold weather. But those walk rates?!? You can’t blame it all on the weather, since the Red Sox hitters (normally fairly patient) have walked 20 fewer times than their opponents. We can come up with plenty of possible reasons or excuses for wildness over the first two weeks, but this will HAVE to change. Our starters haven’t finished seven innings even ONCE this year, so despite the 6-4 record and 4.01 ERA that the rotation boasts you can’t truly say they are getting the job done. The bullpen can survive a little extra work in April, but it will never last all season at this rate.
Okajima .095/.200/.095, 6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
Papelbon .200/.231/.280, 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 14 K
Aardsma .143/.294/.250, 8.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 6 BB, 7 K
Delcarmen .235/.297/.441, 9.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
Total: 30.2 IP, 19 H, 6 ER, 12 BB, 34 K, 1.01 WHIP, 1.76 ERA
I believe these four will form the core of our bullpen this year, getting 80% or more of the high- and moderate-leverage innings. Aardsma can be wild, as you see, but he has undeniably nasty stuff. Farrell seems to have the “fix” for his problems, at least in the early going, and his workload will be managed more cautiously than it was last spring. None of these relievers have any particular platoon splits, so Francona can work them in fewer, longer outings — a good way to get more innings out of a reliever.
Tavarez .292/.393/.292, 6.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
Lopez .316/.435/.474, 4.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
Timlin .625/.625/1.500, 1.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 1 K
Total: 12.1 IP, 18 H, 9 ER, 6 BB, 8 K, 1.95 WHIP, 6.57 ERA
This part of the pen gets a little scary, yet all three have looked good over the last few games. You have to believe they will settle down somewhat, though they will continue to allow a high BAA. Tavarez has yet to allow an extra base hit, while Lopez has given up only one unfortunate home run, so they do have some strengths.
Corey .429/.455/.667, 4.1 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
Snyder .333/.500/.833, 1.2 IP, 2 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
Totals: too ugly to compute
I admit, I had some hopes for Corey. Despite solid performances in spring training, neither of these two got much of a chance to prove themselves in the regular season. I can’t fault the choice, however. Both became expendable when Aardsma was acquired.
The overall bullpen averages fail to capture the dominance of the four featured arms at its core, reflecting instead a slew of “garbage inning” runs allowed by some of the lesser lights. As a whole, the bullpen has two blown saves and a 2-2 record. Perfect? Not yet, and I think they can do better. But these are definitely above-average results for a relief corps that has been worked as hard as this one.
Susan Kishner said,
April 16, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Nice writing style. I will come back to read more posts from you.
Susan Kishner
gerry said,
May 7, 2008 at 1:43 am
Time for a follow up article.
Especially relevant would be how the “Awful April” road trip, fatigue, a dozen injuries at MLB and MiLB levels, and persistent flu not only didn’t crush the Red Sox, but opened doors that would never have opened otherwise, allowing the Sox to gain and maintain first place. Examples:
1. Because of Schill’s injury, Bucholz remained at Fenway instead of Pawtucket, and quickly evolved.
2. Needing a 4th OF, Ellsbury also remained at Fenway, continuing to find ways to win while learnng to adjust to the pitching adjustments to him.
3. Mayor Casey had time to emerge as a super-bench player. What a coup.
4. Coco was injured during trade discussions after a hot ST, and was not traded. His subsequent competition with Jacoby produced more great D, excellent hitting, energized baserunning, and a good attitude.
5. Following Kielte’s injury in AAA, Brandon Moss demonstrated just how good he can be, given the playing time.
6. Following Alex Cora’s injury, Jed Lowrie did an Ellsbury, and seems ready to replace Julio right now, with a better glove and seriously better bat.
7. In the meantime, Julio is competing like a mad man and, except for hitting into double plays and 9 errors, is doing much better than in 2007.
7. Following Lugo’s injury, Thurston got a look at Fenway, and will be back.
8. Following Hansack’s injury, Justin Masterson demonstrated a bright future.
9. Corey got another shot, and looked good.
0. Hansen got another shot, and looked good for one inning, and could stay.
1. Because of all the callups, a couple of AA talents wound up in Pawtucket and are looking good.
2. While Papi was out, Manny, Youk, JD, Tek, took to winning games with long ball.
3. Because we still have all of Ellsbury, Crisp, Lugo, Pedroia, Lowrie on the same team, occasionally at the same time, our base running has risen several levels, scoring runs, winning games, and exciting to watch. Another way to win.
4/ Because of Colon’s setback, Buchholz continues to evolve at Fenway for yet another month. He may never go back.
The list could go on. The bottom line is, although this seems to be the same team as last year, after April’s trials by fire and pestilence, it is much stronger because it is truly much deeper. It has learned that it can fill an injury at any position, at any time, with top talent from within.
This depth is increasingly necessary, because The Red Sox is older and more prone to these issues, and because it is NOT a ‘dream team’ like the Tigers or Yankees. After Papi and Manny, Becket and Paps, its players, while highly rated (Youk, Lowell, Pedroia, Drew, Daisuke, Oki) are not considered the tops at their positions, even with the apparant 2008 upgrades of Lowrie, Ellsbury, Moss, Casey, Cash, Lester, Buchholz, Aardsma, Hansen, Colon. It is a beautifully balanced team of talented, confident, motivated good guys who work hard and play well together to win. Once again, solid pitching, solid hitting and solid D; everywhere strong and nowhere weak, is still the formula for winning.
This may be the most significant story of the 2008 repeat, and you are the right one to pull it all together.
Gerry said,
June 1, 2008 at 11:03 pm
Follow up 2: With Tavarez, Corey, Breslow, Alvarez and Kolb gone, and Paps, Oki, Aardsma, MDC proving to the be the core of the Pen, and with Hansen improving into a 5th dominant pitcher (Thank you Baltimore), that core is expanding. Note that Timlin, too is quickly getting his form back, and Lopez has been like a rock. Your predictions were, therefore, on target, except who could predict the Pen-wide troubles of May, which now appear to be over.
Variables in other areas.
1. Jacoby, while great as predicted on D, and hitting .290 and high OPS, is showing his ability to take over a game and make things happen at will. No one knew when you wrote this piece that he would break records this year.
2. Colon is returning to Ace form, pitch by pitch. He is reaching 97 and his pitches have movement. He is 3 - 0. Question answered!
3. Daisuke, despite continuing control issues and shoulder issues, is 8 - 0. No one expected this.
4. No one predicted that Jon Lester would settle down and pitch a half dozen fine recent games in a row, including a No No.
5. On the other hand, no one predicted that Becket and Papelbon wouldn’t be lights out at this point.
6. Those Boston fans who haven’t fully embraced JDDrew, Mike Lowell, David Aardsma and Daisuke Matsuzaka and Oki by now, are simply too numb to get it.
Pardon my rudeness during your busy schedule, but it’s time for your next piece. Can’t wait.