06.30.08

Hot and Cold, Issue 3

Posted in Baseball at 5:18 pm by Valentine

Half way through the season, the Red Sox sit at 49-32, just one game off their pace of 2007. Unfortunately there is greater competition in the AL East this year. While they held a double-digit lead last July, the margin this year is razor-thin with two legitimate contenders chasing the Red Sox. Their record over the last 27 is a strong 17-10, but even that has barely been enough to hold serve in the division.

[Statistics derived from Baseball-Reference.com, with VORP splits calculated manually. Each line represent 27 games.]

***BURNING UP THE LEAGUE***

JD Drew
92 PA, .273/.380/.416, 2 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 14 BB, 20 K, 0-0 SB, +3.1 VORP
78 PA, .309/.397/.426, 5 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 17 K, 1-1 SB, +4.2 VORP
103 PA, .341/.456/.841, 7 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 18 BB, 13 K, 1-0 SB, +20.1 VORP

What a month! David Ortiz topped this last September, but I can’t otherwise recall a Red Sox performance this strong. For one month Drew was unstoppable. Can he carry some of that success forward? Looks like it will be a while until Ortiz returns.


Manny Ramirez
109 PA, .347/.413/.643, 9 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 10 BB, 26 K, 1-0 SB, +15.0 VORP
105 PA, .231/.333/.330, 3 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 12 BB, 22 K, 0-0 SB, -1.2 VORP
100 PA, .291/.390/.570, 3 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 13 BB, 17 K, 0-0 SB, +10.4 VORP

While this line is certainly strong, he was sizzling in the first half of June prior to his hamstrings acting up. In the two weeks since he has struggled a bit, though there are some signs that he might be finally coming out of the slump. With the end of the interleague schedule, Manny should get as much time at DH as he needs to recover.

Mike Lowell
34 PA, .200/.294/.200, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 5 K, 0-1 SB, -3.0 VORP
111 PA, .298/.333/.577, 11 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 6 BB, 16 K, 0-0 SB, +8.9 VORP
113 PA, .302/.389/.510, 5 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 13 BB, 9 K, 1-0 SB, +8.1 VORP

Lowell’s first half lines have been remarkably consistent since coming to the Red Sox, falling within a range of just ~10 points of OPS. Last year, however, was only the second time in his entire career that the success carried over into the second half and a 150 point improvement over his finish in 2006. Bet on a slide — his numbers last year hung on a .383 BABIP in the second half, a mark he has no realistic chance of repeating. Hopefully the Red Sox will get enough production elsewhere to make up the difference.

Kevin Youkilis
111 PA, .309/.396/.489, 7 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 14 BB, 12 K, 0-1 SB, +7.7 VORP
106 PA, .303/.340/.606, 9 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 6 BB, 21 K, 2-1 SB, +9.9 VORP
85 PA, .297/.388/.514, 4 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 7 BB, 21 K, 1-0 SB, +6.9 VORP

Just when I was convinced that his power had evaporated, Youkilis churned out a four-HR burst over the span of just six starts. I find it curious that this is the second straight month his K:BB has been over 3 — something he had never done previously in his career. Is this a permanent shift in his batting style?

***MISSING YOU***

David Ortiz
111 PA, .177/.288/.323, 2 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 14 BB, 18 K, 0-0 SB, -1.8 VORP
117 PA, .316/.419/.633, 7 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 18 BB, 17 K, 0-0 SB, +14.5 VORP
18 PA, .313/.333/.563, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 0-0 SB, +1.2 VORP

At last check, Ortiz was “not close” to returning. As we return to the AL schedule, his absence will seriously damage the Red Sox offense.

***HANGING IN THERE***

Dustin Pedroia
124 PA, .324/.369/.450, 11 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 13 K, 3-0 SB, +10.5 VORP
121 PA, .254/.286/.351, 5 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 10 K, 3-0 SB, -0.8 VORP
114 PA, .290/.348/.470, 6 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 7 BB, 6 K, 2-0 SB, +5.6 VORP

Almost all of that production came in the last two weeks. Pedroia began the month ice-cold, then finished blazing hot. Nice to see him turn that K:BB around!

Julio Lugo
97 PA, .297/.333/.330, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 4 BB, 15 K, 3-2 SB, +1.8 VORP
72 PA, .276/.389/.345, 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 9 BB, 12 K, 3-1 SB, +3.0 VORP
90 PA, .243/.382/.371, 6 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 17 BB, 15 K, 4-0 SB, +5.1 VORP

If Ellsbury continues to struggle, we could do worse than putting Lugo back atop the lineup. Lugo has been working counts, getting on base, and stealing successfully (if not nearly as frequently as Ellsbury).

Jacoby Ellsbury
92 PA, .280/.396/.440, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 13 BB, 7 K, 8-0 SB, +7.9 VORP
97 PA, .277/.365/.361, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 11 BB, 9 K, 11-2 SB, +4.1 VORP
103 PA, .268/.301/.371, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 22 K, 15-2 SB, +2.7 VORP

Ellsbury has some of the wildest splits I’ve ever seen… A .827 OPS against RHP, .655 against LHP. In Fenway he hits .894, on the road just .670. And, of course, his recent performance is a far cry from what he showed early this year. It is too early to panic, but Ellsbury should be moved to the #9 spot in favor of somebody who can work the strike zone better than he is doing right now. Might he be suffering lingering effects from the wrist injury on June 5 in the “brawl” game? Since then Ellsbury has hit just .240/.260/.347 with a ridiculous 14 strikeouts in 66 PA (and only one walk).

Coco Crisp
55 PA, .314/.333/.392, 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 9 K, 4-0 SB, +3.1 VORP
61 PA, .263/.300/.491, 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 9 K, 2-0 SB, +2.9 VORP
93 PA, .250/.304/.429, 4 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 6 BB, 13 K, 6-3 SB, +1.8 VORP

Crisp certainly finished the month better than he started! I am disappointed by the falling batting average, but he continues to hit for moderate power. These are adequate numbers for a strong defensive CF and good numbers for a fourth outfielder.

***COLD AS ICE***

Jason Varitek
72 PA, .239/.292/.448, 5 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 4 BB, 17 K, 0-0 SB, +0.9 VORP
84 PA, .310/.417/.521, 6 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 11 BB, 20 K, 0-0 SB, +8.1 VORP
79 PA, .149/.203/.216, 2 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 20 K, 0-0 SB, -7.9 VORP

Two weeks ago I wrote that Varitek appears to be guessing at the plate. Since then the situation has further deteriorated. He is on pace to have the worst year of his career, with an OPS+ of just 80 and almost 20 GIDP. Varitek’s defense remains steady, but that is an insufficient justification to offer him a multi-year deal. If the season were to end today, I would recommend offering Varitek salary arbitration and/or a one-year deal. He has failed to earn his keep in two of the last three seasons, and I don’t think it is realistic at this point to expect a rebound. Not at his age. (Could happen, just don’t bet your house on it.)

***CHIPPING IN FROM THE BENCH***

Sean Casey
59 PA, .346/.424/.462, 6 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 0-0 SB, +5.0 VORP
14 PA, .357/.357/.429, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 0-0 SB, +0.7 VORP
40 PA, .395/.425/.474, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 2 K, 0-0 SB, +4.5 VORP

That batting average SCREAMS “fluke”. Still, it is nice to see him thriving in a bench role.

Kevin Cash
35 PA, .323/.371/.419, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 10 K, 0-0 SB, +1.6 VORP
22 PA, .300/.364/.350, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 7 K, 0-0 SB, +0.5 VORP
15 PA, .107/.219/.250, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 9 K, 0-0 SB, -2.7 VORP

If you didn’t expect anything from Cash this year, you can’t be disappointed. Dusty Brown is hitting quite nicely at Pawtucket (for a backup catcher), and could be in the plans for the second half.

***TEAM TOTALS***

.288/.361/.432, 133 R, 56 2B, 4 3B, 23 HR, 101 BB, 167 K, 19 SB, 4 CS
.286/.355/.466, 143 R, 61 2B, 2 3B, 34 HR, 93 BB, 169 K, 22 SB, 5 CS
.263/.344/.451, 130 R, 52 2B, 4 3B, 38 HR, 108 BB, 179 K, 31 SB, 5 CS

The offense is down a little this month, as you might expect with Ortiz on the shelf and the pitchers batting. Surprisingly it was the Red Sox best month for power and patience — all the damage was done to the batting average. Story lines to keep an eye on going forward:

  • The resurgence of JD Drew in an MVP-quality campaign
  • Ellsbury’s strikeouts and falling OBP — injured?
  • Ortiz’ wrist
  • Varitek’s K:BB and vanishing batting average
  • Lugo’s improved OBP — consider for the leadoff spot?

06.13.08

Hot and Cold, Issue 2.5

Posted in Baseball at 10:56 am by Valentine

Though we are only fifteen games removed from the last look at the lineup, the winds have shifted again. In fact the only constant in these season has been the winning — the Red Sox are now 42-27 overall, a strong 10-5 since the last report. Unsurprisingly that breaks down to 3-3 on the road (against the dregs of the league) followed by 7-2 on a homestand. This team is an absolute monster in Fenway!

[Statistics derived from Baseball-Reference.com, with VORP splits calculated manually. The first two lines represent 27 games each, the third covers the last 15 games.]

***BURNING UP THE LEAGUE***

JD Drew
92 PA, .273/.380/.416, 2 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 14 BB, 20 K, 0-0 SB, +3.1 VORP
78 PA, .309/.397/.426, 5 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 17 K, 1-1 SB, +4.2 VORP
53 PA, .450/.566/1.075, 5 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 11 BB, 3 K, 1-0 SB, +16.0 VORP

Wow. Just wow! I’m not even picking my endpoints to make him look good. Were I to do that, I would note that he is only points away from an 1.800 OPS in June. Put it this way — average him in with three hitters mired in a .500 OPS slump, and you get four strong performances. This is the definition of “carrying the team”.

Manny Ramirez
109 PA, .347/.413/.643, 9 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 10 BB, 26 K, 1-0 SB, +15.0 VORP
105 PA, .231/.333/.330, 3 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 12 BB, 22 K, 0-0 SB, -1.2 VORP
63 PA, .340/.444/.774, 2 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 10 BB, 7 K, 0-0 SB, +12.6 VORP

Once #499 left the park, six more quickly followed. It seems incredible that a milestone would get to Manny when nothing else does, but this is exactly what happened the last time he approached a significant mark. He may be more aware of the history of the game, and his place in it, than most players. Read the rest of this entry »

06.09.08

SPEID kills

Posted in Baseball at 10:40 pm by Valentine

After posting my thoughts on the AL playoff race last week, I ran across an interesting comment on a chat board. Referencing the standings, the writer wondered if the playoff picture is truly down to the current leaders? Or are there other teams, not currently at the forefront, who might make a charge later in the season?

It is easy to look at the early run differentials, note that (for the most part) the teams with the strongest run differentials are leading, and declare the season finished. This is essentially what Clay Davenport does in his Playoff Odds calculation. Yet an early hot streak gets reinforced twice in that analysis, first in the current standings and again in the calculated quality of play. Great for reaffirming what we already find easy to believe. Poor for identifying surprises or likely turnarounds. So he introduced another variant, the PECOTA Playoff Odds. For the first two months of the season, those used the PECOTA projections exclusively as a measure of team quality. Now they begin from the current (adjusted) run differential, regressing the results towards the PECOTA projections. Better? If a team was initially expected to be strong, we shouldn’t give up on them entirely just because their first two months were merely average.

This calculation likely pushes the limits of pure statistical analysis, but I suspect we can do better by considering additional factors.

  • Is there a clear reason for the early underperformance that is now no longer an issue? Take the Yankees, for example. In the absence of ARod and Posada, their offense was flat. They haven’t solved the pitching problems, yet more recently they have successfully rallied to erase some sizeable deficits. Surely their lineup is better than that 293 runs scored would suggest?
  • Is there reason to suspect that a team might wear down in the dog days of summer? A pitching staff that is short on depth or inordinately young, perhaps? The A’s have legitimately earned their record, arguably outperforming the Angels over the first two months, but it is hard to believe that those young arms can sustain that level of success all season. Young pitching is the definition of inconsistency!

Thus I propose we rate teams on their Standings, Performance, Expectations, Injuries, and Depth characteristics. With that in mind, some brief comments on the AL picture. (I add my ratings for each team, though that is an obviously suspect step.) Read the rest of this entry »

Will the real Drew step forward?

Posted in Baseball at 10:16 am by Valentine

When David Ortiz left that game against the Orioles with tendon damage in his wrist, Red Sox fans everywhere cringed.  Would it be one month?  Two months?  Surgery and a full year without the lefty half of the Manny Ortez show?  The verdict was ultimately as positive as could be hoped.  One month in a cast should be sufficient with surgery unlikely.  He can continue to work out.  Once he receives medical clearance, he should be back on the field quickly.  Yet even for that month, who can fill his shoes?  The free-swinging Lowell is fine batting fifth or sixth, but his OBP is a liability higher in the lineup.  Youkilis is a possibility, but he has been ice-cold since the middle of May with only one extra base hit over the last seventeen games.

Ultimately there was only one real hope.  JD Drew, who has spent most of the season batting #6/#7 in the lower half of the lineup, is paradoxically the logical choice to fill in at the prime #3 position.  There is no question that Drew has the OBP for the job.  Even last year, as his batting average dipped to .270, his patient and disciplined approach produced an OBP of .373.  His career average is .392, and he has been over .400 as often as he has fallen short of that mark.

Unfortunately, the #3 hitter in the lineup is responsible for more than just getting on base.  He is the linchpin in the order, tasked with driving in the leadoff hitters at the same time he sets up those behind him.  Drew hit just 20 home runs in 2006.  He underwent shoulder surgery in September 2005, and was described as having an “arthritic shoulder” when he signed with the Red Sox last year.  While he averaged 30+ home runs in his prime, there was no reason to expect a return to that level.   Furthermore, 12 of those 20 Dodgers home runs came in power-friendly Dodger Stadium, whereas Fenway’s spacious right field is tough on lefty hitters.  PECOTA projected he would hit 15 home runs in 2007; the actual total of eleven (only four at home) merely added an exclamation mark to the conclusion.

“Drew can still hit for a good average.  He still takes pitches, working counts for walks (and more than a few frustrating strikeouts).  He still plays good defense.  Hits doubles.  But going forward, home runs will be merely the cherry on the sundae, not the meat-and-potatoes of a true power hitter. “  While I didn’t write that in so many words, those lines accurately reflect what I believed at the end of May.

In the eight games since, Drew has hit 14-27 with 3 doubles, a triple, four home runs, six walks, ten runs and ten RBIs.  He is hitting .519/.600/1.148 (that is an OPS of 1.748) over that span and is coming off a game in which he provided the entire Red Sox offense with one RBI on a HBP and another on a solo home run.  Just a hot streak?  Yet averaged in to the previous two months, that brings his season averages to .318/.419/.523, a 150 OPS+ that would be the third best in his career!  Is it time to revise our opinions?

Unfortunately I will have to douse these hopes with a little ice water.  Drew has a .320 BABIP over his career, including a .321 BABIP in 2006 and a .319 BABIP in 2007.  Thus far in 2008 he is running at a .366 BABIP, supporting a batting average that is 30 points higher than he is likely to sustain.  It is good to see him hitting with a little more thump, but our hopes should be centered on a repeat of his 2006 line (146 G, 494 AB, 34 2B, 6 3B, 20 HR, 100 RBI, .283/.393/.498) rather than a true return to his prime.  If Drew can do even that, we’ll barely miss Big Papi.

06.02.08

Playoff Outlook

Posted in Baseball at 12:36 pm by Valentine

With two months complete, is it time to commit to some predictions? We’ve seen enough to get a sense of which pre-season favorites will be serious contenders, but don’t expect any shocking predictions. For the most part, the teams that are currently in the lead deserve to be favorites. A team that is five games back at the end of May likely has some serious problems to address to even keep pace, let alone make up lost ground. I’ll work off the BP Playoff Odds report, found here.

BP calculates “Win3%”, which is their best estimate of the team quality based on raw hitting and pitching statistics, including a strength-of-schedule adjustment. The playoff odds cited combine the chances of winning the division and the wild card. Read the rest of this entry »