06.02.08

Playoff Outlook

Posted in Baseball at 12:36 pm by Valentine

With two months complete, is it time to commit to some predictions? We’ve seen enough to get a sense of which pre-season favorites will be serious contenders, but don’t expect any shocking predictions. For the most part, the teams that are currently in the lead deserve to be favorites. A team that is five games back at the end of May likely has some serious problems to address to even keep pace, let alone make up lost ground. I’ll work off the BP Playoff Odds report, found here.

BP calculates “Win3%”, which is their best estimate of the team quality based on raw hitting and pitching statistics, including a strength-of-schedule adjustment. The playoff odds cited combine the chances of winning the division and the wild card.

AL East

Team	W3%	Odds
Red Sox	.579	73%
Rays	.563	67%
Jays	.560	36%
Yankees	.508	9%
Orioles	.469	2%

The Blue Jays may be four games behind the Red Sox in the standings, and five behind the Rays, yet their performance to date has been almost as strong as the two leaders. Their pitching has been superb, more than compensating for one of the weakest lineups in the majors. This is a team that could greatly benefit from a deadline deal for an impact player (e.g. Adam Dunn). I have a hard time taking them seriously, but you can’t ignore that rotation.The Rays may be a little surprising, but no more than that. We knew their offense would be respectable and that their improved defense would pay dividends. The only real question will be how their young arms hold up over 162. They don’t really have any veterans to carry the load in August.

The Yankees are putting on a bit of a charge, and have improved their record to .500, but consider who they’ve been playing over the last twelve games. Six at home against the Orioles and Hapless Mariners (an official name change?). Six on the road against the Orioles and Twins. An 8-4 record against that competition is simply indicative of a .500 team, NOT anything to brag about.

I still firmly believe that the Red Sox are the best team in the division, however the Rays aren’t far behind and the Jays seem to be hanging tough. Given this competition, we can’t take anything for granted. The calculated playoff odds feel about right — given three other solid teams in the division, the Yankees are long shots to finish in the money.

AL Central

Team	W3%	Odds
White Sox	.529	64%
Indians	.487	13%
Tigers	.485	10%
Twins	.460	15%
Royals	.450	2%

The White Sox are looking like the class of the division. When the strongest team already holds a five game lead over its strongest competitors, they have to be considered favorites. The Twins are an inferior team, but close enough that they could get lucky. After the Santana soap opera last winter, wouldn’t that be a Cinderella story? But I’m betting it doesn’t happen.

AL West

Team	W3%	Odds
Athletics	.554	63%
Rangers	.494	16%
Angels	.486	30%
Mariners	.432	0%

The Mariners are like the White Sox in reverse. They are simultaneously the worst team in the division and trailing by many wins. In understanding why the one team surprised and the other disappointed, consider the character of their off-season moves. The White Sox traded for Quentin, Swisher, and a defensive shortstop. They traded away the veteran Garland, handing the ball to their young arms. In contrast, the Mariners brought in free agents Wilkerson and Silva, blocking prospects, and traded a couple other young talents to get Erik Bedard. Now Bedard is a good pitcher — but the rest of their moves took a team that was already old and made it older (as if Father Time needed any help with that task). That is a losing proposition.

The Athletics have been playing great baseball in the early going, but can they TRULY keep it up? Their offense actually isn’t bad. Some young talent and some journeymen, but it is a stronger group than you might think given the absence of “name” players. You also have to respect their pitching. As long as Harden, Duchscherer, and Street stay healthy, they will be a force to contend with in the West. Hmm…. Guess that means we can write them off. Is there ANY chance that these three play more than half a season?

Despite leading the division, the Angels have a flat run differential. Don’t let that fool you — they’ve been battling injuries all season. Vlad will pick it up. Kendrick is back (and a huge improvement over Sean Rodriguez). The horrible Dustin Moseley has been replaced by John Lackey. The Angels are much better than a .500 team and will prove it over the long haul. Kudos to the Athletics for a strong early effort, but they won’t be playing in October.

NL East

Team	W3%	Odds
Braves	.550	42%
Phillies	.528	44%
Mets	.532	36%
Marlins	.491	19%
Nats	.410	0%

The Phillies currently lead by 3.5 games over Braves and Mets, but there is really very little separating the three teams in quality. Thus the outcome boils down to health, effectiveness, and luck. The Mets should get a boost from the return of Pedro Martinez, while the Braves are taking some hits to their rotation. Thus I would favor New York in this race. The Phillies have a strong team, but bats can only carry you so far. I expect their pitching will fade in the second half.

NL Central

Team	W3%	Odds
Cubs	.562	82%
Cardinals	.507	32%
Brewers	.494	14%
Reds	.490	10%
Astros	.473	8%
Pirates	.470	4%

The Cubs have the best record in the NL and give no hints of ceding that advantage. Why should they, when they play so many games against the mediocre teams in their division? BP gives the Cardinals a 15% chance of winning the division and a 17% chance at the Wild Card, yet this is a team that is doing it with smoke and mirrors. Ryan Ludwick is NOT an All-Star quality player, and when he comes back to earth the Cardinals offense will fall with him. As for their rotation — how can you take a team seriously with Lohse, Looper, and Pineiro all starting?

NL West

Team	W3%	Odds
Diamondbacks	.558	81%
Dodgers	.507	23%
Rockies	.462	1%
Giants	.461	2%
Padres	.446	1%

The Diamondbacks may not have quite as flashy a record as the Cubs, but they are every bit as strong a team. A rotation headed by Webb, Haren, and Randy Johnson is going places!!! Edgar Gonzalez was dumping on the averages for a while, but Doug Davis is back and Max Scherzer may be the most talented pitcher on the team. They have pitching depth and a young, improving offense. The Dodgers won’t catch them.

So my June 2 picks for the playoffs:

AL: Red Sox, White Sox, Angels, Rays

I don’t expect the AL standings to change much, though the Red Sox should be able to catch the Rays for the division title. The Blue Jays will keep both teams honest, and even if they fall out of contention could play spoiler in September. Stick a fork in the Yankees and Tigers. The two highest payrolls have been spent on a major league load of horse manure. In theory they could still make up the lost ground. In practice, I don’t think they have the pitching.

NL: Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Braves

Last year the Mets faded down the stretch. This year I believe it will be the Phillies that take a dive. The NL East should be close until the very end, but I believe the pitching depth of the Braves will carry the day. Don’t ignore the Dodgers, however. They can and will get better production out of LF and CF than they’ve seen from Pierre and Jones. Playing Ethier and Kemp every day would be a start.

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