06.09.08

Will the real Drew step forward?

Posted in Baseball at 10:16 am by Valentine

When David Ortiz left that game against the Orioles with tendon damage in his wrist, Red Sox fans everywhere cringed.  Would it be one month?  Two months?  Surgery and a full year without the lefty half of the Manny Ortez show?  The verdict was ultimately as positive as could be hoped.  One month in a cast should be sufficient with surgery unlikely.  He can continue to work out.  Once he receives medical clearance, he should be back on the field quickly.  Yet even for that month, who can fill his shoes?  The free-swinging Lowell is fine batting fifth or sixth, but his OBP is a liability higher in the lineup.  Youkilis is a possibility, but he has been ice-cold since the middle of May with only one extra base hit over the last seventeen games.

Ultimately there was only one real hope.  JD Drew, who has spent most of the season batting #6/#7 in the lower half of the lineup, is paradoxically the logical choice to fill in at the prime #3 position.  There is no question that Drew has the OBP for the job.  Even last year, as his batting average dipped to .270, his patient and disciplined approach produced an OBP of .373.  His career average is .392, and he has been over .400 as often as he has fallen short of that mark.

Unfortunately, the #3 hitter in the lineup is responsible for more than just getting on base.  He is the linchpin in the order, tasked with driving in the leadoff hitters at the same time he sets up those behind him.  Drew hit just 20 home runs in 2006.  He underwent shoulder surgery in September 2005, and was described as having an “arthritic shoulder” when he signed with the Red Sox last year.  While he averaged 30+ home runs in his prime, there was no reason to expect a return to that level.   Furthermore, 12 of those 20 Dodgers home runs came in power-friendly Dodger Stadium, whereas Fenway’s spacious right field is tough on lefty hitters.  PECOTA projected he would hit 15 home runs in 2007; the actual total of eleven (only four at home) merely added an exclamation mark to the conclusion.

“Drew can still hit for a good average.  He still takes pitches, working counts for walks (and more than a few frustrating strikeouts).  He still plays good defense.  Hits doubles.  But going forward, home runs will be merely the cherry on the sundae, not the meat-and-potatoes of a true power hitter. “  While I didn’t write that in so many words, those lines accurately reflect what I believed at the end of May.

In the eight games since, Drew has hit 14-27 with 3 doubles, a triple, four home runs, six walks, ten runs and ten RBIs.  He is hitting .519/.600/1.148 (that is an OPS of 1.748) over that span and is coming off a game in which he provided the entire Red Sox offense with one RBI on a HBP and another on a solo home run.  Just a hot streak?  Yet averaged in to the previous two months, that brings his season averages to .318/.419/.523, a 150 OPS+ that would be the third best in his career!  Is it time to revise our opinions?

Unfortunately I will have to douse these hopes with a little ice water.  Drew has a .320 BABIP over his career, including a .321 BABIP in 2006 and a .319 BABIP in 2007.  Thus far in 2008 he is running at a .366 BABIP, supporting a batting average that is 30 points higher than he is likely to sustain.  It is good to see him hitting with a little more thump, but our hopes should be centered on a repeat of his 2006 line (146 G, 494 AB, 34 2B, 6 3B, 20 HR, 100 RBI, .283/.393/.498) rather than a true return to his prime.  If Drew can do even that, we’ll barely miss Big Papi.

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