06.09.08

SPEID kills

Posted in Baseball at 10:40 pm by Valentine

After posting my thoughts on the AL playoff race last week, I ran across an interesting comment on a chat board. Referencing the standings, the writer wondered if the playoff picture is truly down to the current leaders? Or are there other teams, not currently at the forefront, who might make a charge later in the season?

It is easy to look at the early run differentials, note that (for the most part) the teams with the strongest run differentials are leading, and declare the season finished. This is essentially what Clay Davenport does in his Playoff Odds calculation. Yet an early hot streak gets reinforced twice in that analysis, first in the current standings and again in the calculated quality of play. Great for reaffirming what we already find easy to believe. Poor for identifying surprises or likely turnarounds. So he introduced another variant, the PECOTA Playoff Odds. For the first two months of the season, those used the PECOTA projections exclusively as a measure of team quality. Now they begin from the current (adjusted) run differential, regressing the results towards the PECOTA projections. Better? If a team was initially expected to be strong, we shouldn’t give up on them entirely just because their first two months were merely average.

This calculation likely pushes the limits of pure statistical analysis, but I suspect we can do better by considering additional factors.

• Is there a clear reason for the early underperformance that is now no longer an issue? Take the Yankees, for example. In the absence of ARod and Posada, their offense was flat. They haven’t solved the pitching problems, yet more recently they have successfully rallied to erase some sizeable deficits. Surely their lineup is better than that 293 runs scored would suggest?
• Is there reason to suspect that a team might wear down in the dog days of summer? A pitching staff that is short on depth or inordinately young, perhaps? The A’s have legitimately earned their record, arguably outperforming the Angels over the first two months, but it is hard to believe that those young arms can sustain that level of success all season. Young pitching is the definition of inconsistency!

Thus I propose we rate teams on their Standings, Performance, Expectations, Injuries, and Depth characteristics. With that in mind, some brief comments on the AL picture. (I add my ratings for each team, though that is an obviously suspect step.)

Red Sox: +5
S: + (small lead in the division but a 4.5 game lead in the Wild Card race)
P: ++ (+55 run differential, second in league)
E: + (one of the five early favorites in the AL)
I: - (despite a string of early injuries, there are suggestions that the worst is yet to come)
D: ++ (incredible pitching depth, strong bench, and sufficient minor league talent to plug almost any gaps)

Angels: +4
S: + (4.5 game lead, backed by the best road record in the league)
P: 0 (+9 run differential, suggesting an also-ran not a division winner)
E: + (were expected to run away with the division)
I: + (Lackey, Escobar, Kendrick and Guerrero have all been hit with injuries in the early going)
D: + (better bench, good minor league system)

White Sox: +4
S: +++ (commanding 6.5 game lead in division, nearest competition looks weak)
P: +++ (+70 run differential, tops in league)
E: 0 (projected to have very poor pitching)
I: 0 (thus far no major injuries, couldn’t possibly be any better and will likely get a little tougher)
D: - (might be my ignorance, but I don’t think they have much waiting in the wings)

(evil) Rays: +3
S: 0 (just three game lead in wild card race, beginning a tough West Coast swing)
P: + (solid +22 run differential)
E: + (perhaps I’m being generous, but PECOTA likes their roster)
I: 0 (played without Kazmir for a month, without Percival for the last week)
D: + (have to believe their minor league system will cough up a couple additional talents in August)

Yankees: +3
S: - (essentially tied with the Blue Jays)
P: 0 (flat run differential)
E: ++ (expected to leave everybody in the dust according to PECOTA)
I: + (rotation trouble plus injuries to ARod and Posada, all seem to be resolving at this time)
D: + (hints of bullpen help in the second half)

Athletics: +0
S: 0 (within shooting distance of both division and wild card)
P: ++ (their +46 run differential is up there with the best)
E: 0 (projected to have no offense)
I: - (Harden, Duchscherer, and Street have all been healthy thus far — how improbable is that?)
D: - (young rotation, with most of the advanced prospects already up, low probability of deadline acquisition)

Blue Jays: -1
S: - (third place in the division, at a disadvantage to the other wild card contenders)
P: + (solid +25 run differential)
E: 0 (projected to have weak offense and average pitching)
I: 0 (some injuries behind them, likely more to come)
D: - (not sure whether they lack depth in the system or have no idea how to find/use it)

Twins: -2
S: - (six back in division and in wild card)
P: - (-33 run differential)
E: - (expected to be doormats)
I: + (could get Liriano back soon)
D: 0 (a “plug and play” team, mostly interchangeable parts)

Indians: -3
S: — (ten out in division, nine out in wild card race)
P: 0 (they’ve been better than their record, but still flat — padded by a few blowouts)
E: + (expected to be serious contenders)
I: - (continuing injury problems, no real end in sight)
D: - (if they had any, we would have seen it by now)

Tigers: -3
S: — (behind Indians)
P: - (-21 run differential)
E: + (expected to be serious contenders)
I: 0 (Bonderman out as Zumaya returns)
D: 0 (surprisingly strong, to me at least, but not enough to save them)

Orioles: -4
S: - (tied with the Yankees and Blue Jays)
P: - (-13 run differential)
E: — (expected to be bottom dwellers)
I: 0 (haven’t paid much attention, to be honest)
D: 0 (same here)

So if anybody asks you why you think the Red Sox will be playing in September, you can tell them it is the team SPEID. I don’t see any other team with as many positive factors going their way. The Athletics have a strong early performance, but I believe injuries and youth will take them down. On the other hand, the Yankees are a serious threat to the Rays if the latter falter.

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