06.13.08
Hot and Cold, Issue 2.5
Though we are only fifteen games removed from the last look at the lineup, the winds have shifted again. In fact the only constant in these season has been the winning — the Red Sox are now 42-27 overall, a strong 10-5 since the last report. Unsurprisingly that breaks down to 3-3 on the road (against the dregs of the league) followed by 7-2 on a homestand. This team is an absolute monster in Fenway!
[Statistics derived from Baseball-Reference.com, with VORP splits calculated manually. The first two lines represent 27 games each, the third covers the last 15 games.]
***BURNING UP THE LEAGUE***
JD Drew
92 PA, .273/.380/.416, 2 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 14 BB, 20 K, 0-0 SB, +3.1 VORP
78 PA, .309/.397/.426, 5 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 17 K, 1-1 SB, +4.2 VORP
53 PA, .450/.566/1.075, 5 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 11 BB, 3 K, 1-0 SB, +16.0 VORP
Wow. Just wow! I’m not even picking my endpoints to make him look good. Were I to do that, I would note that he is only points away from an 1.800 OPS in June. Put it this way — average him in with three hitters mired in a .500 OPS slump, and you get four strong performances. This is the definition of “carrying the team”.
Manny Ramirez
109 PA, .347/.413/.643, 9 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 10 BB, 26 K, 1-0 SB, +15.0 VORP
105 PA, .231/.333/.330, 3 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 12 BB, 22 K, 0-0 SB, -1.2 VORP
63 PA, .340/.444/.774, 2 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 10 BB, 7 K, 0-0 SB, +12.6 VORP
Once #499 left the park, six more quickly followed. It seems incredible that a milestone would get to Manny when nothing else does, but this is exactly what happened the last time he approached a significant mark. He may be more aware of the history of the game, and his place in it, than most players.
***HANGING IN THERE***
Mike Lowell
34 PA, .200/.294/.200, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 5 K, 0-1 SB, -3.0 VORP
111 PA, .298/.333/.577, 11 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 6 BB, 16 K, 0-0 SB, +8.9 VORP
60 PA, .255/.333/.549, 3 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 6 BB, 6 K, 1-0 SB, +3.4 VORP
Fifteen RBIs over the last fifteen games, including a Granny last night. None better at clearing the bases.
Jacoby Ellsbury
92 PA, .280/.396/.440, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 13 BB, 7 K, 8-0 SB, +7.9 VORP
97 PA, .277/.365/.361, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 11 BB, 9 K, 11-2 SB, +4.1 VORP
51 PA, .283/.333/.370, 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 4 BB, 11 K, 10-1 SB, +2.8 VORP
Whither fled that vaunted OBP? You have to love his basestealing, but Ellsbury hasn’t walked in a week.
Kevin Youkilis
111 PA, .309/.396/.489, 7 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 14 BB, 12 K, 0-1 SB, +7.7 VORP
106 PA, .303/.340/.606, 9 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 6 BB, 21 K, 2-1 SB, +9.9 VORP
55 PA, .283/.400/.391, 2 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 6 BB, 12 K, 1-0 SB, +2.1 VORP
As expected, his power production disappeared as rapidly as it arrived. After hitting six home runs and five doubles between May 4 and May 10, Youkilis has just two and six over the last month-plus.
David Ortiz
111 PA, .177/.288/.323, 2 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 14 BB, 18 K, 0-0 SB, -1.8 VORP
117 PA, .316/.419/.633, 7 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 18 BB, 17 K, 0-0 SB, +14.5 VORP
18 PA, .313/.333/.563, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 0-0 SB, +1.2 VORP
What could be worse than losing your star slugger for a minimum of a month? Actually, many things… The Red Sox played the first month with Ortiz hitting like crap. They’ve played the last two weeks without him in the lineup at all. He’s a great hitter, but no higher than #3 on my list of “I hope he stays healthy”. (I won’t tempt the fates by giving names.)
Julio Lugo
97 PA, .297/.333/.330, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 4 BB, 15 K, 3-2 SB, +1.8 VORP
72 PA, .276/.389/.345, 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 9 BB, 12 K, 3-1 SB, +3.0 VORP
53 PA, .214/.365/.262, 2 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 10 BB, 9 K, 2-0 SB, +1.0 VORP
Despite the strong OBP and good speed on the basepaths, Lugo only has two runs scored over this stretch. He isn’t getting any help from his teammates in that part of the lineup.
***COLD AS ICE***
Jason Varitek
72 PA, .239/.292/.448, 5 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 4 BB, 17 K, 0-0 SB, +0.9 VORP
84 PA, .310/.417/.521, 6 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 11 BB, 20 K, 0-0 SB, +8.1 VORP
46 PA, .200/.217/.289, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 13 K, 0-0 SB, -2.7 VORP
Is there a streakier hitter on the team than Varitek? Note the dismal K:BB. He’s guessing at the plate right now.
Coco Crisp
55 PA, .314/.333/.392, 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 9 K, 4-0 SB, +3.1 VORP
61 PA, .263/.300/.491, 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 9 K, 2-0 SB, +2.9 VORP
57 PA, .184/.268/.204, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 5 BB, 7 K, 4-2 SB, -4.1 VORP
With Ortiz on the shelf, the sun has been shining brightly on Crisp. Unfortunately he has forgotten how to make hay. Disgraceful! HTFB!!!
Dustin Pedroia
124 PA, .324/.369/.450, 11 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 13 K, 3-0 SB, +10.5 VORP
121 PA, .254/.286/.351, 5 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 10 K, 3-0 SB, -0.8 VORP
58 PA, .125/.246/.208, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 5 K, 0-0 SB, -5.6 VORP
When Dustin Pedroia fails to hit his weight, you know he is cold! Is he trying to draw walks? Worrying about taking pitches to let Ellsbury steal? Either way, he needs to be dropped to #8 in the lineup now. Take the pressure off, let him remember his natural swing. You’re better than this, DP. Prove it!
***CHIPPING IN FROM THE BENCH***
Sean Casey
59 PA, .346/.424/.462, 6 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 0-0 SB, +5.0 VORP
14 PA, .357/.357/.429, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 0-0 SB, +0.7 VORP
21 PA, .450/.476/.500, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 0-0 SB, +2.9 VORP
Nice hitting, albeit in a limited role.
Jed Lowrie
36 PA, .323/.371/.419, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 7 K, 0-0 SB, +1.9 VORP
12 PA, .273/.250/.636, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 0-0 SB, +1.0 VORP
—DNP—
Lowrie has returned to Pawtucket, where he is again running a .400 OBP and .900 OPS. The kid has game!
Kevin Cash
35 PA, .323/.371/.419, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 10 K, 0-0 SB, +1.6 VORP
22 PA, .300/.364/.350, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 7 K, 0-0 SB, +0.5 VORP
15 PA, .077/.200/.154, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 5 K, 0-0 SB, -1.7 VORP
To Varitek’s credit, he’s better than cold Cash.
***TEAM TOTALS***
.288/.361/.432, 133 R, 56 2B, 4 3B, 23 HR, 101 BB, 167 K, 19 SB, 4 CS
.286/.355/.466, 143 R, 61 2B, 2 3B, 34 HR, 93 BB, 169 K, 22 SB, 5 CS
.259/.356/.442, 79 R, 24 2B, 2 3B, 21 HR, 69 BB, 88 K, 19 SB, 3 CS
Still scoring 1.7 R/G more at home than on the road. Their road offense isn’t bad, but in Fenway they are dominant.
Gerry said,
July 26, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Where are you? Your input is needed with just 58 games to go, in and out of 1st place, the Rays hanging tough, the Yankees marching forward and trading wildly, the Sox standing pat and NOT going after Rauch, Marte, Fuentes, Street, Sherrill, or Holliday, Nady, Bay, Texeira (good thing); at the same time NOT getting a good look at Carter, Bailey, Moss, Smith; or even considering Zinc, Pauley, Hansack, Kottaras, all 8 of whom seem to be hitting their stride, and are ready to shine in the Show. Bowden is being rushed while all-star Zinc is being suppressed. Sounds like even the coaches get enamoured of great potential, put blinders on, and bypass solid talent, often to the long term detriment of these kids (Hansen, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Sanchez come to mind).
Valentine said,
July 26, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Hi Gerry,
I’ve been posting over at sawxheads.com…
Zink has (finally) been looking good this year. He’ll definitely get a chance in September, possibly earlier if Buchholz continues to struggle.
The asking price on those relievers has been very high. Doesn’t make sense to part with Masterson, Buchholz, or Bowden for a short-term fix, and teams aren’t showing that much interest in the other names.
The #1 issue right now is figuring out the Manny situation. They either need to square things with him over the last two months of the season, or they need to trade him within the next week. Neither will be easy.