07.30.08
Hot and Cold, Issue 4
With another 27 games in the books, the Red Sox juggernaut appears to be falling apart. Their competition has been tough, with six of nine series coming against the Angels, Rays, Yankees, or Twins. Only four of those series have come at home. Nonetheless, a 12-15 record is disappointing no matter what the schedule.
Particularly frustrating have been the one-run losses. Six of their defeats have come by the slimmest of margins, with only three one-run victories to balance them. The offense has been particularly inconsistent, averaging barely 4 runs per game despite three double-digit explosions. Twelve times they have been held to three or fewer runs in the game — you cannot hope to win those regularly!
Reviewing the offense…
[Statistics derived from Baseball-Reference.com, with VORP splits calculated manually. Each line represent 27 games.]
***BURNING UP THE LEAGUE***
Dustin Pedroia
124 PA, .324/.369/.450, 11 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 13 K, 3-0 SB, +10.5 VORP
121 PA, .254/.286/.351, 5 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 10 K, 3-0 SB, -0.8 VORP
114 PA, .290/.348/.470, 6 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 7 BB, 6 K, 2-0 SB, +5.6 VORP
127 PA, .388/.433/.534, 9 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 9 BB, 9 K, 3-1 SB, +15.5 VORP
Pedroia is batting .409/.444/.598 in 38 games since June 14th. Just when you think the kid has plateaued, he raises his game to another level! I can’t say that I expect this to continue, but let’s enjoy it while it lasts.
Manny Ramirez
109 PA, .347/.413/.643, 9 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 10 BB, 26 K, 1-0 SB, +15.0 VORP
105 PA, .231/.333/.330, 3 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 12 BB, 22 K, 0-0 SB, -1.2 VORP
100 PA, .291/.390/.570, 3 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 13 BB, 17 K, 0-0 SB, +10.4 VORP
107 PA, .333/.458/.586, 7 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 16 BB, 21 K, 0-0 SB, +13.9 VORP
Manny may be causing us headaches, but his bat remains red-hot. A pity he was unable to rouse himself to face Joba in a key division matchup. The Red Sox are absolutely a better team with Manny than without him. Unfortunately, his heart may already have left town.
Kevin Youkilis
111 PA, .309/.396/.489, 7 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 14 BB, 12 K, 0-1 SB, +7.7 VORP
106 PA, .303/.340/.606, 9 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 6 BB, 21 K, 2-1 SB, +9.9 VORP
85 PA, .297/.388/.514, 4 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 7 BB, 21 K, 1-0 SB, +6.9 VORP
120 PA, .327/.392/.558, 5 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 10 BB, 15 K, 0-2 SB, +9.3 VORP
Youkilis continues to improve his game! He is maintaining the power spike that he showed in May, while improving his K:BB and batting average. These numbers look VERY similar to what Manny has done over his eight years in Boston. Perhaps we have found his replacement? But then who replaces Youkilis?
JD Drew
92 PA, .273/.380/.416, 2 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 14 BB, 20 K, 0-0 SB, +3.1 VORP
78 PA, .309/.397/.426, 5 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 17 K, 1-1 SB, +4.2 VORP
103 PA, .341/.456/.841, 7 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 18 BB, 13 K, 1-0 SB, +20.1 VORP
112 PA, .230/.384/.494, 6 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 21 BB, 19 K, 1-0 SB, +6.0 VORP
Despite the low batting average, Drew has continued to produce reasonable averages. Unfortunately several of the hitters around him have been slumping. I suspect pitchers are working Drew very carefully right now, preferring to face an ice-cold Lowell or Varitek rather than challenging the lefty. Drew’s batting average will rebound, and I take encouragement in the continuing home run power.
***WELCOME BACK!!!***
David Ortiz
111 PA, .177/.288/.323, 2 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 14 BB, 18 K, 0-0 SB, -1.8 VORP
117 PA, .316/.419/.633, 7 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 18 BB, 17 K, 0-0 SB, +14.5 VORP
18 PA, .313/.333/.563, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 0-0 SB, +1.2 VORP
22 PA, .350/.364/.550, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 0-0 SB, +2.3 VORP
Ortiz missed almost 50 games, during which time the Red Sox offense largely scuffled. It is great to have him back, even better that his power appears to be unmarred.
***HANGING IN THERE***
Mike Lowell
34 PA, .200/.294/.200, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 5 K, 0-1 SB, -3.0 VORP
111 PA, .298/.333/.577, 11 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 6 BB, 16 K, 0-0 SB, +8.9 VORP
113 PA, .302/.389/.510, 5 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 13 BB, 9 K, 1-0 SB, +8.1 VORP
120 PA, .264/.325/.387, 7 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 11 BB, 15 K, 0-1 SB, +0.7 VORP
Lowell’s last home run game on July 4. Since then he is hitting just .200/.277/.240. Last month I warned there was a strong possibility we would see a second-half power outage, as he has suffered almost every year of his career. Now we are seeing just that.
Julio Lugo
97 PA, .297/.333/.330, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 4 BB, 15 K, 3-2 SB, +1.8 VORP
72 PA, .276/.389/.345, 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 9 BB, 12 K, 3-1 SB, +3.0 VORP
90 PA, .243/.382/.371, 6 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 17 BB, 15 K, 4-0 SB, +5.1 VORP
48 PA, .238/.298/.238, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 4 BB, 9 K, 2-1 SB, -1.7 VORP
You hate to ever wish injury on a player, but in this case it made a necessary decision much easier. Lowrie hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been a lot better than this. Lugo has 13 GIDP (and a few more creative double plays) vs. 22 RBI, an outstandingly awful ratio.
Jed Lowrie
36 PA, .323/.371/.419, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 7 K, 0-0 SB, +1.9 VORP
12 PA, .273/.250/.636, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 0-0 SB, +1.0 VORP
–DNP–
38 PA, .250/.342/.281, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 5 BB, 8 K, 0-0 SB, -0.1 VORP
Lowrie isn’t exactly pounding holes in the Green Monster, yet he has 11 RBIs in roughly one month of play. He plays clean defense and despite playing in an O/D platoon with Cora has thus far managed a better range factor than Lugo. I do not at this time see any reason to take the job away from him when Lugo returns. For that matter, I don’t see any compelling reason to have him platoon with Cora.
***COLD AS ICE***
Coco Crisp
55 PA, .314/.333/.392, 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 9 K, 4-0 SB, +3.1 VORP
61 PA, .263/.300/.491, 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 9 K, 2-0 SB, +2.9 VORP
93 PA, .250/.304/.429, 4 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 6 BB, 13 K, 6-3 SB, +1.8 VORP
54 PA, .143/.294/.143, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 9 BB, 10 K, 2-0 SB, -3.8 VORP
After switching between hot and cold streaks for three months, Crisp seems to have gotten stuck in the “off” position. I would consider using him in place of Ellsbury against LHP, but can’t really see him in a larger role at this point. He is taking some incredibly poor hacks at the plate.
Jason Varitek
72 PA, .239/.292/.448, 5 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 4 BB, 17 K, 0-0 SB, +0.9 VORP
84 PA, .310/.417/.521, 6 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 11 BB, 20 K, 0-0 SB, +8.1 VORP
79 PA, .149/.203/.216, 2 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 20 K, 0-0 SB, -7.9 VORP
89 PA, .171/.281/.250, 3 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 12 BB, 25 K, 0-0 SB, -4.2 VORP
Hey, he’s improving! In fact, he is hitting .231/.310/.423 over the last seven games. Trend or fluke? In this case I’ll bet on “fluke”. He still hits the ball moderately hard on those rare occasions that he connects, and he’ll take a lot of pitches (especially called strikes). But there is nothing in his recent performance to suggest that the recent .700+ OPS is anything but a picked-endpoint small sample oddity. Between his own lack of production and the effect on the hitters around him (Drew has been intentionally or semi-intentionally walked several times recently), Varitek is costing the Red Sox at least 10 runs a month right now. You can hide a .650 OPS at the bottom of the lineup, but a .500 OPS can cause irreparable damage. It is literally worse than playing by NL rules, since teams are at least willing to pinch-hit for their pitchers occasionally.
Jacoby Ellsbury
92 PA, .280/.396/.440, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 13 BB, 7 K, 8-0 SB, +7.9 VORP
97 PA, .277/.365/.361, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 11 BB, 9 K, 11-2 SB, +4.1 VORP
103 PA, .268/.301/.371, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 22 K, 15-2 SB, +2.7 VORP
117 PA, .234/.267/.288, 4 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 19 K, 1-3 SB, -7.6 VORP
How bad does a slump have to get before you move a rookie out of the leadoff spot? He had already suffered through a month of a .300 OBP. Did Francona believe that dropping him to #9 would destroy his confidence? The Red Sox are now leading off with their top foursome of Pedroia, Youkilis, Ortiz, and Manny. Now THAT is a lineup that should create some early leads!
***CHIPPING IN FROM THE BENCH***
Sean Casey
59 PA, .346/.424/.462, 6 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 0-0 SB, +5.0 VORP
14 PA, .357/.357/.429, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 0-0 SB, +0.7 VORP
40 PA, .395/.425/.474, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 2 K, 0-0 SB, +4.5 VORP
35 PA, .323/.400/.419, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 4 BB, 9 K, 0-0 SB, +1.8 VORP
One would think that Francona could find a little more playing time for Casey, perhaps pinch-hitting him for Lugo, Crisp, or Varitek regularly? With two outs and a runner in scoring position, who do you want at the plate?
Kevin Cash
35 PA, .323/.371/.419, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 10 K, 0-0 SB, +1.6 VORP
22 PA, .300/.364/.350, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 7 K, 0-0 SB, +0.5 VORP
15 PA, .107/.219/.250, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 9 K, 0-0 SB, -2.7 VORP
19 PA, .211/.211/.421, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 9 K, 0-0 SB, -0.3 VORP
Cash may be an even worse offensive catcher than the slumping Varitek. I can’t get too worked up about that, though, given the limited playing time. He does seem to do a good job handling Wakefield.
***TEAM TOTALS***
.288/.361/.432, 133 R, 56 2B, 4 3B, 23 HR, 101 BB, 167 K, 19 SB, 4 CS
.286/.355/.466, 143 R, 61 2B, 2 3B, 34 HR, 93 BB, 169 K, 22 SB, 5 CS
.263/.344/.451, 130 R, 52 2B, 4 3B, 38 HR, 108 BB, 179 K, 31 SB, 5 CS
.276/.355/.416, 130 R, 51 2B, 6 3B, 22 HR, 108 BB, 187 K, 10 SB, 9 CS
These are surprisingly strong averages, given how disappointed I have been with the results. David Ortiz’ return should provide an immediate jolt of power, and a rebound from Ellsbury could quickly restore the running game.
Story lines to watch for the next month:
* Dustin Pedroia — the Little Engine that Could
* The return of David Ortiz
* Manny — “Should I stay or should I go?”
* Ellsbury’s continuing slump
* Varitek, a.k.a. “Captain Black Hole”