02.10.08
Posted in Baseball at 3:16 pm by Valentine
Bad news on Curt Schilling: a tendon in his shoulder is apparently separating longitudinally, resulting in massive inflammation and pain. Will Carroll seems to believe that Schilling might return by the All-Star Break. Dr. Craig Morgan seems to believe that is impossible without surgery. I have nothing to add to the prognosis, but what are the implications for the Red Sox in 2008?
- Beckett – 30 starts, 3.64 ERA
- Matsuzaka – 30 starts, 3.90 ERA
- Buchholz – 27 starts, 4.08 ERA
- Lester – 27 starts, 4.93 ERA
- Wakefield – 20 starts, 4.86 ERA
The ERAs are from the newly-released 2008 PECOTA projections. The estimated starts are my own, allowing for a couple skipped starts or a quick trip to the DL for both Beckett and Matsuzaka, an approximate 165-180 innings for each of the kids, and a little less than four months of health for Wakefield. These are reasonably conservative estimates, though a major injury to one of the front four could derail them.
This is a very strong rotation! Buchholz’ projection tabs him as the #32 starting pitcher (by ERA) in the majors. Lester and Wakefield’s projections are both solidly average (and there is reason to hope that each will improve on those numbers when healthy). I have no qualms about the quality of any of these arms. Yet if you count up the projected starts, it seems unlikely that these five will be enough. The above estimates total only 134 GS, with at least a couple dozen starts left over no matter how you slice it. Who might take the mound in those games? Two possibilities, both projected by PECOTA in a “Swing” role:
- Tavarez – 15 starts, 5.14 ERA
- Hansack – 15 starts, 5.09 ERA
Julian Tavarez started 23 games for the Red Sox in 2007, though he was clearly tiring by July. My projection of 15 GS is hopefully low enough to keep him reasonably fresh and effective, especially if they do not come in consecutive turns of the rotation. He is a competent pitcher, allowing 3 or fewer runs through 5 or more innings in 13 of his 23 starts. There are many superior pitchers out there, but none that are freely available.
Devern Hansack is a 30-year old rookie, recalled a few years back from the shrimp boats in his native Nicaragua. He pitched briefly in the majors in both 2006 and 2007, with ambiguous results, but has never really had the opportunity to prove himself at that level. His minor league numbers are promising:
2006 Portland (AA) 3.27 ERA, 132 IP, 122 H, 14 HR, 36 BB, 124 K
2007 Pawtucket (AAA) 3.61 ERA, 139.2 IP, 126 H, 16 HR, 40 BB, 131 K
Hansack is too old to have any real hope of further improvement, but those minor league lines translate to at least brief utility in the majors. He still has at least one “option” remaining, so the Red Sox can shuttle him back and forth between Pawtucket and the majors as often as is necessary in 2008. This flexibility is a mixed blessing for Hansack. It almost guarantees that he will not break camp with the club, beginning the season at AAA, yet it also makes him a prime candidate to be the “first into the breach” if there is an injury in the rotation requiring a DL move. (Craig Hansen is in a similar situation in the bullpen.) He will get his chances this year, especially if he impresses in Spring Training.
In conclusion, my answers to the Questions of the Day:
Question 1: Can the Red Sox cover all 162 starts without digging up Jason Johnson?
Answer: Barring a season-ending injury to one of the front four, this should not be a problem. Even with the innings-restriction on the kids, we can still reasonably hope for ~134 starts from our front-line pitchers. Tavarez and Hansack should be able to cover whatever remains.
Question 2: Should Theo give Josh Fogg or Livan Hernandez a call?
Answer: No way! Neither Fogg nor Hernandez is at all an improvement over Tavarez/Hansack. They might be reasonable alternatives for a team with an open spot in the rotation, but the Red Sox have five quality pitchers. We’re just looking for depth behind them.
Question 3: Does the loss of Schilling sink the team?
Answer: Is the sky falling? We were hoping for ~120 innings of a 4.18 ERA out of Schilling. Now it looks like we will be forced to substitute ~120 innings from Tavarez or Hansack, with an ERA about one run higher. The cost? Roughly one expected win. This doesn’t help the team, but there is only a small chance that this will be a critical factor.
Question 4: Any silver linings?
Answer: Before Schilling went down, we were wondering how Buchholz would get his starts. Move Wakefield to the pen? Lester? Let Buchholz expend his innings in the minors while waiting his chance? The Red Sox have fewer resources available today than before the injury, however the situation allows them to be deployed more efficiently.
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11.22.07
Posted in Baseball at 12:44 pm by Valentine
While I’ve often harped on the excesses of the free agent market, and the futility of attempting to “build” a team through signing aging veterans, I am stunned by three contracts that were announced yesterday. Curiously, my reasons for disliking the deals are different in each case. Read the rest of this entry »
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11.08.07
Posted in Baseball at 12:30 pm by Valentine
Is it possible to be both a renowned egotist and the ultimate team player? Is it possible to merit the Hall of Fame with only scattered “black” ink (league-leading statistics) and no major individual awards? Curt Schilling is a pitcher whose greatness has always been defined in the context of his team. Read the rest of this entry »
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10.30.07
Posted in Baseball at 5:26 pm by Valentine
Born in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Lowell was drafted by the Yankees in the 20th round of the 1995 draft out of Florida International University. His minor league lines were initially underwhelming, as he hit for a .651 and .748 OPS in his first two minor league seasons. Nonetheless he was promoted to Norwich (AA) in 1997, where he exploded for a .344/.438/.561 line. That earned him a mid-season promotion to Columbus (AAA) where he continued to mash to the tune of .276/.348/.562.
On another team, a performance like that might have earned Lowell an immediate shot at the majors. Instead, the Yankees traded the disappointing Kenny Rogers and cash to Oakland for the equally disappointing Scott Brosius, leaving Lowell in the minors for another year. Read the rest of this entry »
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10.11.07
Posted in Baseball at 10:38 pm by Valentine
The Red Sox and Indians have comparably strong rotations and bullpens for the ALCS. How do their lineups compare? I’d love to compare position-by-position, but these teams get their production from very different spots on the field. So I’ll try to match the hitters according to their role on the team and style of play (as much as possible). These comparisons are strictly looking at offense, not positional or defensive value. The latter considerations are already reflected in the pitchers’ ERAs.
Power Bats:
David Ortiz (DH) .332/.445/.621
Victor Martinez (C) .301/.374/.505
Victor Martinez may be a similarly valuable player to Ortiz when his position is taken into account, however offensively there is no comparison. This is a key difference between the teams; Martinez is very good, but Ortiz is one of the most dangerous hitters in the majors.
Advantage: RED SOX
But… Both players are terrific clutch hitters. The key will be getting them clutch opportunities in which to perform. Read the rest of this entry »
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Posted in Baseball at 11:50 am by Valentine
I’ve been resisting the urge to make predictions (since a short series is practically a coin flip anyways), but how do the Red Sox and Indians pitchers compare?
#1 Starting Pitcher
Sabathia 3.21 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.80 K/9
Beckett 3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.70 K/9
Pick your poison. Sabathia was dominant throughout the regular season, tossing four complete games (a stat that has some predictive value for post-season success). Beckett has been used more cautiously but is just as good.
Advantage: EVEN
If pressed: Take Beckett on the basis of his three post-season shutouts.
Read the rest of this entry »
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10.09.07
Posted in Baseball at 3:50 pm by Valentine
This year, for the first time, there is an extra off day in the League Championship Series between games 4 and 5. This is not a travel day, nor does it appear to be motivated by weather concerns. Most likely, the networks asked that the late-series games be staggered to avoid scheduling two deciding games on the same night. Under the new schedule, that can only happen if the NLCS goes a full seven. This is good for the networks, good for the bullpens, and irrelevant to most fans. But what implications does it have for strategy? Read the rest of this entry »
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08.06.07
Posted in Baseball at 3:21 pm by Valentine
“That bum! I can’t believe they gave him $30 million!” It is hard to comprehend the magnitude of some of the deals in major league baseball, especially in light of the mediocre performances they often buy. Yet the free agent market is the primary avenue by which the wealthiest teams can convert their riches into on-field success. If the Red Sox or Yankees were to turn their back on free agents entirely, they would need to compete on an even basis with the Oakland and Minnesota franchises. While that might be more satisfying on some level, it undoubtedly would hurt their playoff chances.
The Red Sox were active players in the 2006-2007 market, acquiring three front-line players for a total cost of over $200 million. How do these contracts compare on a “value” basis to the other major free agent signings last winter? There were fourteen deals in excess of $30 million. I will analyze each briefly using some basic “rate” statistics (BA/OBP/SLG for hitters, ERA/WHIP for pitchers) as well as using WARP3, an estimate of the overall offensive/defensive/pitching value that a player brings to a team compared to a “replacement player” that you might freely acquire in the minors.
The contracts… Read the rest of this entry »
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08.03.07
Posted in Baseball at 2:48 pm by Valentine
Are you a Boston Red Sox fan, looking for quick cuts on the hometown team? I have been regularly updating two pages of comprehensive individual comments, covering the lineup and the rotation. Let me know if there are any changes or additions you would like to see!
Link to the Offensive Lines
Link to the Rotation Roundup
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08.01.07
Posted in Baseball at 1:49 pm by Valentine
In the card game of “Hearts”, the usual goal is to avoid ending up with hearts (hence the name) or the queen of spades. However, if a player manages to collect all fourteen of these cards, then the other players are marked down the points. A player who attempts to “shoot the moon”, as this is called, accepts the risk of a poor result in the hope of a massive victory.This is similar to a pennant-race deal in baseball. A contending team will offer up major-league-ready prospects in exchange for a key player that improves their chances of completing the drive to the playoffs and winning the World Series. You cannot evaluate these deals strictly on the basis of value exchanged. The prospects offered up will bring their new team six years of cheap service before reaching free agency, while the veterans going the other way are frequently a two-month rental. The gap does narrow a bit if you factor in the opportunity to sign the veteran to an extended deal, or receive draft-pick compensation when he leaves, yet the prospects in almost every case can be expected to return greater long-term value. The justification for the deal is not winning the most games, but winning the games that matter the most. Thus you cannot evaluate these deals without consideration for the pennant-race context within which they occur.
The Mark Teixeira deal is a clear example of a team “shooting the moon”. Read the rest of this entry »
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