Particularly frustrating have been the one-run losses. Six of their defeats have come by the slimmest of margins, with only three one-run victories to balance them. The offense has been particularly inconsistent, averaging barely 4 runs per game despite three double-digit explosions. Twelve times they have been held to three or fewer runs in the game — you cannot hope to win those regularly!

Reviewing the offense…

[Statistics derived from Baseball-Reference.com, with VORP splits calculated manually. Each line represent 27 games.]

***BURNING UP THE LEAGUE***

Dustin Pedroia
124 PA, .324/.369/.450, 11 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 13 K, 3-0 SB, +10.5 VORP
121 PA, .254/.286/.351, 5 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 10 K, 3-0 SB, -0.8 VORP
114 PA, .290/.348/.470, 6 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 7 BB, 6 K, 2-0 SB, +5.6 VORP
127 PA, .388/.433/.534, 9 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 9 BB, 9 K, 3-1 SB, +15.5 VORP

Pedroia is batting .409/.444/.598 in 38 games since June 14th. Just when you think the kid has plateaued, he raises his game to another level! I can’t say that I expect this to continue, but let’s enjoy it while it lasts.

Manny Ramirez
109 PA, .347/.413/.643, 9 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 10 BB, 26 K, 1-0 SB, +15.0 VORP
105 PA, .231/.333/.330, 3 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 12 BB, 22 K, 0-0 SB, -1.2 VORP
100 PA, .291/.390/.570, 3 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 13 BB, 17 K, 0-0 SB, +10.4 VORP
107 PA, .333/.458/.586, 7 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 16 BB, 21 K, 0-0 SB, +13.9 VORP

Manny may be causing us headaches, but his bat remains red-hot. A pity he was unable to rouse himself to face Joba in a key division matchup. The Red Sox are absolutely a better team with Manny than without him. Unfortunately, his heart may already have left town.

Kevin Youkilis
111 PA, .309/.396/.489, 7 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 14 BB, 12 K, 0-1 SB, +7.7 VORP
106 PA, .303/.340/.606, 9 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 6 BB, 21 K, 2-1 SB, +9.9 VORP
85 PA, .297/.388/.514, 4 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 7 BB, 21 K, 1-0 SB, +6.9 VORP
120 PA, .327/.392/.558, 5 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 10 BB, 15 K, 0-2 SB, +9.3 VORP

Youkilis continues to improve his game! He is maintaining the power spike that he showed in May, while improving his K:BB and batting average. These numbers look VERY similar to what Manny has done over his eight years in Boston. Perhaps we have found his replacement? But then who replaces Youkilis?

JD Drew
92 PA, .273/.380/.416, 2 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 14 BB, 20 K, 0-0 SB, +3.1 VORP
78 PA, .309/.397/.426, 5 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 17 K, 1-1 SB, +4.2 VORP
103 PA, .341/.456/.841, 7 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 18 BB, 13 K, 1-0 SB, +20.1 VORP
112 PA, .230/.384/.494, 6 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 21 BB, 19 K, 1-0 SB, +6.0 VORP

Despite the low batting average, Drew has continued to produce reasonable averages. Unfortunately several of the hitters around him have been slumping. I suspect pitchers are working Drew very carefully right now, preferring to face an ice-cold Lowell or Varitek rather than challenging the lefty. Drew’s batting average will rebound, and I take encouragement in the continuing home run power.

***WELCOME BACK!!!***

David Ortiz
111 PA, .177/.288/.323, 2 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 14 BB, 18 K, 0-0 SB, -1.8 VORP
117 PA, .316/.419/.633, 7 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 18 BB, 17 K, 0-0 SB, +14.5 VORP
18 PA, .313/.333/.563, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 0-0 SB, +1.2 VORP
22 PA, .350/.364/.550, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 0-0 SB, +2.3 VORP

Ortiz missed almost 50 games, during which time the Red Sox offense largely scuffled. It is great to have him back, even better that his power appears to be unmarred.

***HANGING IN THERE***

Mike Lowell
34 PA, .200/.294/.200, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 5 K, 0-1 SB, -3.0 VORP
111 PA, .298/.333/.577, 11 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 6 BB, 16 K, 0-0 SB, +8.9 VORP
113 PA, .302/.389/.510, 5 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 13 BB, 9 K, 1-0 SB, +8.1 VORP
120 PA, .264/.325/.387, 7 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 11 BB, 15 K, 0-1 SB, +0.7 VORP

Lowell’s last home run game on July 4. Since then he is hitting just .200/.277/.240. Last month I warned there was a strong possibility we would see a second-half power outage, as he has suffered almost every year of his career. Now we are seeing just that.

Julio Lugo
97 PA, .297/.333/.330, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 4 BB, 15 K, 3-2 SB, +1.8 VORP
72 PA, .276/.389/.345, 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 9 BB, 12 K, 3-1 SB, +3.0 VORP
90 PA, .243/.382/.371, 6 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 17 BB, 15 K, 4-0 SB, +5.1 VORP
48 PA, .238/.298/.238, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 4 BB, 9 K, 2-1 SB, -1.7 VORP

You hate to ever wish injury on a player, but in this case it made a necessary decision much easier. Lowrie hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been a lot better than this. Lugo has 13 GIDP (and a few more creative double plays) vs. 22 RBI, an outstandingly awful ratio.

Jed Lowrie
36 PA, .323/.371/.419, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 7 K, 0-0 SB, +1.9 VORP
12 PA, .273/.250/.636, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 0-0 SB, +1.0 VORP
–DNP–
38 PA, .250/.342/.281, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 5 BB, 8 K, 0-0 SB, -0.1 VORP

Lowrie isn’t exactly pounding holes in the Green Monster, yet he has 11 RBIs in roughly one month of play. He plays clean defense and despite playing in an O/D platoon with Cora has thus far managed a better range factor than Lugo. I do not at this time see any reason to take the job away from him when Lugo returns. For that matter, I don’t see any compelling reason to have him platoon with Cora.

***COLD AS ICE***

Coco Crisp
55 PA, .314/.333/.392, 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 9 K, 4-0 SB, +3.1 VORP
61 PA, .263/.300/.491, 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 9 K, 2-0 SB, +2.9 VORP
93 PA, .250/.304/.429, 4 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 6 BB, 13 K, 6-3 SB, +1.8 VORP
54 PA, .143/.294/.143, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 9 BB, 10 K, 2-0 SB, -3.8 VORP

After switching between hot and cold streaks for three months, Crisp seems to have gotten stuck in the “off” position. I would consider using him in place of Ellsbury against LHP, but can’t really see him in a larger role at this point. He is taking some incredibly poor hacks at the plate.

Jason Varitek
72 PA, .239/.292/.448, 5 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 4 BB, 17 K, 0-0 SB, +0.9 VORP
84 PA, .310/.417/.521, 6 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 11 BB, 20 K, 0-0 SB, +8.1 VORP
79 PA, .149/.203/.216, 2 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 20 K, 0-0 SB, -7.9 VORP
89 PA, .171/.281/.250, 3 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 12 BB, 25 K, 0-0 SB, -4.2 VORP

Hey, he’s improving! In fact, he is hitting .231/.310/.423 over the last seven games. Trend or fluke? In this case I’ll bet on “fluke”. He still hits the ball moderately hard on those rare occasions that he connects, and he’ll take a lot of pitches (especially called strikes). But there is nothing in his recent performance to suggest that the recent .700+ OPS is anything but a picked-endpoint small sample oddity. Between his own lack of production and the effect on the hitters around him (Drew has been intentionally or semi-intentionally walked several times recently), Varitek is costing the Red Sox at least 10 runs a month right now. You can hide a .650 OPS at the bottom of the lineup, but a .500 OPS can cause irreparable damage. It is literally worse than playing by NL rules, since teams are at least willing to pinch-hit for their pitchers occasionally.

Jacoby Ellsbury
92 PA, .280/.396/.440, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 13 BB, 7 K, 8-0 SB, +7.9 VORP
97 PA, .277/.365/.361, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 11 BB, 9 K, 11-2 SB, +4.1 VORP
103 PA, .268/.301/.371, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 22 K, 15-2 SB, +2.7 VORP
117 PA, .234/.267/.288, 4 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 19 K, 1-3 SB, -7.6 VORP

How bad does a slump have to get before you move a rookie out of the leadoff spot? He had already suffered through a month of a .300 OBP. Did Francona believe that dropping him to #9 would destroy his confidence? The Red Sox are now leading off with their top foursome of Pedroia, Youkilis, Ortiz, and Manny. Now THAT is a lineup that should create some early leads!

***CHIPPING IN FROM THE BENCH***

Sean Casey
59 PA, .346/.424/.462, 6 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 0-0 SB, +5.0 VORP
14 PA, .357/.357/.429, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 0-0 SB, +0.7 VORP
40 PA, .395/.425/.474, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 2 K, 0-0 SB, +4.5 VORP
35 PA, .323/.400/.419, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 4 BB, 9 K, 0-0 SB, +1.8 VORP

One would think that Francona could find a little more playing time for Casey, perhaps pinch-hitting him for Lugo, Crisp, or Varitek regularly? With two outs and a runner in scoring position, who do you want at the plate?

Kevin Cash
35 PA, .323/.371/.419, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 10 K, 0-0 SB, +1.6 VORP
22 PA, .300/.364/.350, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 7 K, 0-0 SB, +0.5 VORP
15 PA, .107/.219/.250, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 9 K, 0-0 SB, -2.7 VORP
19 PA, .211/.211/.421, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 9 K, 0-0 SB, -0.3 VORP

Cash may be an even worse offensive catcher than the slumping Varitek. I can’t get too worked up about that, though, given the limited playing time. He does seem to do a good job handling Wakefield.

***TEAM TOTALS***

.288/.361/.432, 133 R, 56 2B, 4 3B, 23 HR, 101 BB, 167 K, 19 SB, 4 CS
.286/.355/.466, 143 R, 61 2B, 2 3B, 34 HR, 93 BB, 169 K, 22 SB, 5 CS
.263/.344/.451, 130 R, 52 2B, 4 3B, 38 HR, 108 BB, 179 K, 31 SB, 5 CS
.276/.355/.416, 130 R, 51 2B, 6 3B, 22 HR, 108 BB, 187 K, 10 SB, 9 CS

These are surprisingly strong averages, given how disappointed I have been with the results. David Ortiz’ return should provide an immediate jolt of power, and a rebound from Ellsbury could quickly restore the running game.

Story lines to watch for the next month:
* Dustin Pedroia — the Little Engine that Could
* The return of David Ortiz
* Manny — “Should I stay or should I go?”
* Ellsbury’s continuing slump
* Varitek, a.k.a. “Captain Black Hole”

[Statistics derived from Baseball-Reference.com, with VORP splits calculated manually. Each line represent 27 games.]

***BURNING UP THE LEAGUE***

JD Drew
92 PA, .273/.380/.416, 2 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 14 BB, 20 K, 0-0 SB, +3.1 VORP
78 PA, .309/.397/.426, 5 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 17 K, 1-1 SB, +4.2 VORP
103 PA, .341/.456/.841, 7 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 18 BB, 13 K, 1-0 SB, +20.1 VORP

What a month! David Ortiz topped this last September, but I can’t otherwise recall a Red Sox performance this strong. For one month Drew was unstoppable. Can he carry some of that success forward? Looks like it will be a while until Ortiz returns.

Manny Ramirez
109 PA, .347/.413/.643, 9 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 10 BB, 26 K, 1-0 SB, +15.0 VORP
105 PA, .231/.333/.330, 3 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 12 BB, 22 K, 0-0 SB, -1.2 VORP
100 PA, .291/.390/.570, 3 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 13 BB, 17 K, 0-0 SB, +10.4 VORP

While this line is certainly strong, he was sizzling in the first half of June prior to his hamstrings acting up. In the two weeks since he has struggled a bit, though there are some signs that he might be finally coming out of the slump. With the end of the interleague schedule, Manny should get as much time at DH as he needs to recover.

Mike Lowell
34 PA, .200/.294/.200, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 5 K, 0-1 SB, -3.0 VORP
111 PA, .298/.333/.577, 11 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 6 BB, 16 K, 0-0 SB, +8.9 VORP
113 PA, .302/.389/.510, 5 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 13 BB, 9 K, 1-0 SB, +8.1 VORP

Lowell’s first half lines have been remarkably consistent since coming to the Red Sox, falling within a range of just ~10 points of OPS. Last year, however, was only the second time in his entire career that the success carried over into the second half and a 150 point improvement over his finish in 2006. Bet on a slide — his numbers last year hung on a .383 BABIP in the second half, a mark he has no realistic chance of repeating. Hopefully the Red Sox will get enough production elsewhere to make up the difference.

Kevin Youkilis
111 PA, .309/.396/.489, 7 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 14 BB, 12 K, 0-1 SB, +7.7 VORP
106 PA, .303/.340/.606, 9 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 6 BB, 21 K, 2-1 SB, +9.9 VORP
85 PA, .297/.388/.514, 4 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 7 BB, 21 K, 1-0 SB, +6.9 VORP

Just when I was convinced that his power had evaporated, Youkilis churned out a four-HR burst over the span of just six starts. I find it curious that this is the second straight month his K:BB has been over 3 — something he had never done previously in his career. Is this a permanent shift in his batting style?

***MISSING YOU***

David Ortiz
111 PA, .177/.288/.323, 2 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 14 BB, 18 K, 0-0 SB, -1.8 VORP
117 PA, .316/.419/.633, 7 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 18 BB, 17 K, 0-0 SB, +14.5 VORP
18 PA, .313/.333/.563, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 0-0 SB, +1.2 VORP

At last check, Ortiz was “not close” to returning. As we return to the AL schedule, his absence will seriously damage the Red Sox offense.

***HANGING IN THERE***

Dustin Pedroia
124 PA, .324/.369/.450, 11 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 13 K, 3-0 SB, +10.5 VORP
121 PA, .254/.286/.351, 5 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 10 K, 3-0 SB, -0.8 VORP
114 PA, .290/.348/.470, 6 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 7 BB, 6 K, 2-0 SB, +5.6 VORP

Almost all of that production came in the last two weeks. Pedroia began the month ice-cold, then finished blazing hot. Nice to see him turn that K:BB around!

Julio Lugo
97 PA, .297/.333/.330, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 4 BB, 15 K, 3-2 SB, +1.8 VORP
72 PA, .276/.389/.345, 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 9 BB, 12 K, 3-1 SB, +3.0 VORP
90 PA, .243/.382/.371, 6 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 17 BB, 15 K, 4-0 SB, +5.1 VORP

If Ellsbury continues to struggle, we could do worse than putting Lugo back atop the lineup. Lugo has been working counts, getting on base, and stealing successfully (if not nearly as frequently as Ellsbury).

Jacoby Ellsbury
92 PA, .280/.396/.440, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 13 BB, 7 K, 8-0 SB, +7.9 VORP
97 PA, .277/.365/.361, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 11 BB, 9 K, 11-2 SB, +4.1 VORP
103 PA, .268/.301/.371, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 22 K, 15-2 SB, +2.7 VORP

Ellsbury has some of the wildest splits I’ve ever seen… A .827 OPS against RHP, .655 against LHP. In Fenway he hits .894, on the road just .670. And, of course, his recent performance is a far cry from what he showed early this year. It is too early to panic, but Ellsbury should be moved to the #9 spot in favor of somebody who can work the strike zone better than he is doing right now. Might he be suffering lingering effects from the wrist injury on June 5 in the “brawl” game? Since then Ellsbury has hit just .240/.260/.347 with a ridiculous 14 strikeouts in 66 PA (and only one walk).

Coco Crisp
55 PA, .314/.333/.392, 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 9 K, 4-0 SB, +3.1 VORP
61 PA, .263/.300/.491, 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 9 K, 2-0 SB, +2.9 VORP
93 PA, .250/.304/.429, 4 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 6 BB, 13 K, 6-3 SB, +1.8 VORP

Crisp certainly finished the month better than he started! I am disappointed by the falling batting average, but he continues to hit for moderate power. These are adequate numbers for a strong defensive CF and good numbers for a fourth outfielder.

***COLD AS ICE***

Jason Varitek
72 PA, .239/.292/.448, 5 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 4 BB, 17 K, 0-0 SB, +0.9 VORP
84 PA, .310/.417/.521, 6 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 11 BB, 20 K, 0-0 SB, +8.1 VORP
79 PA, .149/.203/.216, 2 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 20 K, 0-0 SB, -7.9 VORP

Two weeks ago I wrote that Varitek appears to be guessing at the plate. Since then the situation has further deteriorated. He is on pace to have the worst year of his career, with an OPS+ of just 80 and almost 20 GIDP. Varitek’s defense remains steady, but that is an insufficient justification to offer him a multi-year deal. If the season were to end today, I would recommend offering Varitek salary arbitration and/or a one-year deal. He has failed to earn his keep in two of the last three seasons, and I don’t think it is realistic at this point to expect a rebound. Not at his age. (Could happen, just don’t bet your house on it.)

***CHIPPING IN FROM THE BENCH***

Sean Casey
59 PA, .346/.424/.462, 6 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 0-0 SB, +5.0 VORP
14 PA, .357/.357/.429, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 0-0 SB, +0.7 VORP
40 PA, .395/.425/.474, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 2 K, 0-0 SB, +4.5 VORP

That batting average SCREAMS “fluke”. Still, it is nice to see him thriving in a bench role.

Kevin Cash
35 PA, .323/.371/.419, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 10 K, 0-0 SB, +1.6 VORP
22 PA, .300/.364/.350, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 7 K, 0-0 SB, +0.5 VORP
15 PA, .107/.219/.250, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 9 K, 0-0 SB, -2.7 VORP

If you didn’t expect anything from Cash this year, you can’t be disappointed. Dusty Brown is hitting quite nicely at Pawtucket (for a backup catcher), and could be in the plans for the second half.

***TEAM TOTALS***

.288/.361/.432, 133 R, 56 2B, 4 3B, 23 HR, 101 BB, 167 K, 19 SB, 4 CS
.286/.355/.466, 143 R, 61 2B, 2 3B, 34 HR, 93 BB, 169 K, 22 SB, 5 CS
.263/.344/.451, 130 R, 52 2B, 4 3B, 38 HR, 108 BB, 179 K, 31 SB, 5 CS

The offense is down a little this month, as you might expect with Ortiz on the shelf and the pitchers batting. Surprisingly it was the Red Sox best month for power and patience — all the damage was done to the batting average. Story lines to keep an eye on going forward:

• The resurgence of JD Drew in an MVP-quality campaign
• Ellsbury’s strikeouts and falling OBP — injured?
• Ortiz’ wrist
• Varitek’s K:BB and vanishing batting average
• Lugo’s improved OBP — consider for the leadoff spot?

[Statistics derived from Baseball-Reference.com, with VORP splits calculated manually. The first two lines represent 27 games each, the third covers the last 15 games.]

***BURNING UP THE LEAGUE***

JD Drew
92 PA, .273/.380/.416, 2 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 14 BB, 20 K, 0-0 SB, +3.1 VORP
78 PA, .309/.397/.426, 5 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 17 K, 1-1 SB, +4.2 VORP
53 PA, .450/.566/1.075, 5 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 11 BB, 3 K, 1-0 SB, +16.0 VORP

Wow. Just wow! I’m not even picking my endpoints to make him look good. Were I to do that, I would note that he is only points away from an 1.800 OPS in June. Put it this way — average him in with three hitters mired in a .500 OPS slump, and you get four strong performances. This is the definition of “carrying the team”.

Manny Ramirez
109 PA, .347/.413/.643, 9 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 10 BB, 26 K, 1-0 SB, +15.0 VORP
105 PA, .231/.333/.330, 3 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 12 BB, 22 K, 0-0 SB, -1.2 VORP
63 PA, .340/.444/.774, 2 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 10 BB, 7 K, 0-0 SB, +12.6 VORP

Once #499 left the park, six more quickly followed. It seems incredible that a milestone would get to Manny when nothing else does, but this is exactly what happened the last time he approached a significant mark. He may be more aware of the history of the game, and his place in it, than most players. (more…)

It is easy to look at the early run differentials, note that (for the most part) the teams with the strongest run differentials are leading, and declare the season finished. This is essentially what Clay Davenport does in his Playoff Odds calculation. Yet an early hot streak gets reinforced twice in that analysis, first in the current standings and again in the calculated quality of play. Great for reaffirming what we already find easy to believe. Poor for identifying surprises or likely turnarounds. So he introduced another variant, the PECOTA Playoff Odds. For the first two months of the season, those used the PECOTA projections exclusively as a measure of team quality. Now they begin from the current (adjusted) run differential, regressing the results towards the PECOTA projections. Better? If a team was initially expected to be strong, we shouldn’t give up on them entirely just because their first two months were merely average.

This calculation likely pushes the limits of pure statistical analysis, but I suspect we can do better by considering additional factors.

• Is there a clear reason for the early underperformance that is now no longer an issue? Take the Yankees, for example. In the absence of ARod and Posada, their offense was flat. They haven’t solved the pitching problems, yet more recently they have successfully rallied to erase some sizeable deficits. Surely their lineup is better than that 293 runs scored would suggest?
• Is there reason to suspect that a team might wear down in the dog days of summer? A pitching staff that is short on depth or inordinately young, perhaps? The A’s have legitimately earned their record, arguably outperforming the Angels over the first two months, but it is hard to believe that those young arms can sustain that level of success all season. Young pitching is the definition of inconsistency!

Thus I propose we rate teams on their Standings, Performance, Expectations, Injuries, and Depth characteristics. With that in mind, some brief comments on the AL picture. (I add my ratings for each team, though that is an obviously suspect step.) (more…)

Ultimately there was only one real hope.  JD Drew, who has spent most of the season batting #6/#7 in the lower half of the lineup, is paradoxically the logical choice to fill in at the prime #3 position.  There is no question that Drew has the OBP for the job.  Even last year, as his batting average dipped to .270, his patient and disciplined approach produced an OBP of .373.  His career average is .392, and he has been over .400 as often as he has fallen short of that mark.

Unfortunately, the #3 hitter in the lineup is responsible for more than just getting on base.  He is the linchpin in the order, tasked with driving in the leadoff hitters at the same time he sets up those behind him.  Drew hit just 20 home runs in 2006.  He underwent shoulder surgery in September 2005, and was described as having an “arthritic shoulder” when he signed with the Red Sox last year.  While he averaged 30+ home runs in his prime, there was no reason to expect a return to that level.   Furthermore, 12 of those 20 Dodgers home runs came in power-friendly Dodger Stadium, whereas Fenway’s spacious right field is tough on lefty hitters.  PECOTA projected he would hit 15 home runs in 2007; the actual total of eleven (only four at home) merely added an exclamation mark to the conclusion.

“Drew can still hit for a good average.  He still takes pitches, working counts for walks (and more than a few frustrating strikeouts).  He still plays good defense.  Hits doubles.  But going forward, home runs will be merely the cherry on the sundae, not the meat-and-potatoes of a true power hitter. “  While I didn’t write that in so many words, those lines accurately reflect what I believed at the end of May.

In the eight games since, Drew has hit 14-27 with 3 doubles, a triple, four home runs, six walks, ten runs and ten RBIs.  He is hitting .519/.600/1.148 (that is an OPS of 1.748) over that span and is coming off a game in which he provided the entire Red Sox offense with one RBI on a HBP and another on a solo home run.  Just a hot streak?  Yet averaged in to the previous two months, that brings his season averages to .318/.419/.523, a 150 OPS+ that would be the third best in his career!  Is it time to revise our opinions?

Unfortunately I will have to douse these hopes with a little ice water.  Drew has a .320 BABIP over his career, including a .321 BABIP in 2006 and a .319 BABIP in 2007.  Thus far in 2008 he is running at a .366 BABIP, supporting a batting average that is 30 points higher than he is likely to sustain.  It is good to see him hitting with a little more thump, but our hopes should be centered on a repeat of his 2006 line (146 G, 494 AB, 34 2B, 6 3B, 20 HR, 100 RBI, .283/.393/.498) rather than a true return to his prime.  If Drew can do even that, we’ll barely miss Big Papi.

BP calculates “Win3%”, which is their best estimate of the team quality based on raw hitting and pitching statistics, including a strength-of-schedule adjustment. The playoff odds cited combine the chances of winning the division and the wild card. (more…)

Some lines from the first fifteen games:
Kevin Youkilis .385/.452/.635, 52 AB, 20 H, 8 2B/3B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 5 K
JD Drew .316/.400/.579, 38 AB, 12 H, 1 2B/3B, 3 HR, 6 BB, 13 K
Manny Ramirez .293/.359/.586, 58 AB, 17 H, 7 2B/3B, 3 HR, 5 BB, 18 K

Youkilis has been outstanding in the early going, working pitchers for a plus BB-K ratio while driving the ball for line-drive power. Youkilis has hit well in the first half before, so the key here will be to maintain his strength and intensity for the full season. JD Drew is striking out more often than usual, perhaps a reflection of the cold weather? That is still a promising performance, especially in the power department. Manny Ramirez is also striking out a lot, but he is punishing the ball in his remaining AB. Ten XBH in two weeks (including a triple!) bodes ill for AL hurlers.

Jacoby Ellsbury .280/.424/.400, 25 AB, 7 H, 0 2B/3B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 3 K
Sean Casey .280/.357/.400, 25 AB, 7 H, 3 2B/3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
Dustin Pedroia .311/.368/.377, 61 AB, 19 H, 4 2B/3B, 0 HR, 6 BB, 8 K
Coco Crisp .325/.349/.375, 40 AB, 13 H, 2 2B/3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 7 K
Julio Lugo .280/.321/.320, 50 AB, 14 H, 2 2B/3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 7 KIt is hard to miss the common thread for this group. All are hitting for quality averages. None are hitting for power. Ellsbury has been particularly impressive, drawing seven walks (including one intentional, surely a novel experience!) against only three strikeouts. Casey and Pedroia are executing a similar game, albeit less successfully, while Crisp and Lugo could use a little more secondary production in their lines.

Jason Varitek .261/.292/.522, 46 AB, 12 H, 3 2B/3B, 3 HR, 2 BB, 11 K
Kevin Cash .200/.200/.300, 10 AB, 2 H, 1 2B/3B, 0 HR, 0 BB, 5 K
Mike Lowell .200/.294/.200, 30 AB, 6 H, 0 2B/3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 5 K
David Ortiz .113/.242/.170, 53 AB, 6 H, 0 2B/3B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 12 K

Varitek is hitting for power, perhaps the result of his well-publicized off-season workouts, but his K/BB ratio troubles me.  Is he turning into Doug Mirabelli?  With only 10 AB, I wouldn’t normally include Cash yet in this report, but he offers a worrisome referent for the struggles of Lowell and Ortiz. It is far too soon to give up on our veteran sluggers. After all, Manny Ramirez hit .202 last April and still turned in a quality season. Still, Ortiz’ slump is much worse even than what he went through. I would consider sliding Ortiz down in the lineup (perhaps swapping him with Drew at #6) until his bat gets going.

D. Matsuzaka 3-0, 23.1 IP, 5.0 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 5.8 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 2.70 ERA
Tim Wakefield 1-0, 17.0 IP, 8.5 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 6.4 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 3.18 ERA
Clay Buchholz 0-1, 11.0 IP, 8.2 H/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.1 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 3.27 ERA
Jon Lester 1-2, 20.1 IP, 8.0 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 6.6 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 5.31 ERA
Josh Beckett 1-1, 11.1 IP, 6.4 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 6.35 ERA

These are some unbelievable numbers! The K/9 is roughly what you would expect for these pitchers (a little low for Lester, a little high for Wakefield). The HR/9 is a little depressed, likely due to the cold weather. But those walk rates?!? You can’t blame it all on the weather, since the Red Sox hitters (normally fairly patient) have walked 20 fewer times than their opponents. We can come up with plenty of possible reasons or excuses for wildness over the first two weeks, but this will HAVE to change. Our starters haven’t finished seven innings even ONCE this year, so despite the 6-4 record and 4.01 ERA that the rotation boasts you can’t truly say they are getting the job done. The bullpen can survive a little extra work in April, but it will never last all season at this rate.

Okajima .095/.200/.095, 6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
Papelbon .200/.231/.280, 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 14 K
Aardsma .143/.294/.250, 8.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 6 BB, 7 K
Delcarmen .235/.297/.441, 9.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
Total: 30.2 IP, 19 H, 6 ER, 12 BB, 34 K, 1.01 WHIP, 1.76 ERA

I believe these four will form the core of our bullpen this year, getting 80% or more of the high- and moderate-leverage innings. Aardsma can be wild, as you see, but he has undeniably nasty stuff. Farrell seems to have the “fix” for his problems, at least in the early going, and his workload will be managed more cautiously than it was last spring. None of these relievers have any particular platoon splits, so Francona can work them in fewer, longer outings — a good way to get more innings out of a reliever.

Tavarez .292/.393/.292, 6.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
Lopez .316/.435/.474, 4.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
Timlin .625/.625/1.500, 1.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 1 K
Total: 12.1 IP, 18 H, 9 ER, 6 BB, 8 K, 1.95 WHIP, 6.57 ERA

This part of the pen gets a little scary, yet all three have looked good over the last few games. You have to believe they will settle down somewhat, though they will continue to allow a high BAA. Tavarez has yet to allow an extra base hit, while Lopez has given up only one unfortunate home run, so they do have some strengths.

Corey .429/.455/.667, 4.1 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
Snyder .333/.500/.833, 1.2 IP, 2 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
Totals: too ugly to compute

I admit, I had some hopes for Corey. Despite solid performances in spring training, neither of these two got much of a chance to prove themselves in the regular season. I can’t fault the choice, however. Both became expendable when Aardsma was acquired.

The overall bullpen averages fail to capture the dominance of the four featured arms at its core, reflecting instead a slew of “garbage inning” runs allowed by some of the lesser lights. As a whole, the bullpen has two blown saves and a 2-2 record. Perfect? Not yet, and I think they can do better. But these are definitely above-average results for a relief corps that has been worked as hard as this one.

Neither does this tendency to overreact improve with the next turn of the calendar. Suddenly we have Official Numbers on the statistical record, superceding those 2007 results that informed the Hot Stove chatter. No longer do we look at what a player did the previous year, or over his career. As a result of his Series-clinching victory over the Rockies in October, Lester was the darling of the chat boards all winter. Many took that as a clear indication that he was ready to Step Up and be a front-line starter. Yet now, after three starts in which he has struggled with inconsistent command, Lester is being dismissed as a liability in the rotation. Reality, of course, is somewhere in between. He is a talented young pitcher, as his World Series start proved, but he is young. Consistency is slow to develop, and must needs be proven over months rather than in a single game.

While we cannot truly learn anything new from the first ten games, we can perhaps use this opportunity to dispel myths that were built up over the last six months. Some observations:

• JD Drew is hitting .440/.483/.720 in the early going, after flashing some impressive power in the final exhibition games. Prior to 2007, he has always been productive when healthy.
• Kevin Youkilis is hitting .324/.415/.529 over the first ten games.  In each of the last two seasons, he has been a terrific hitter before wearing down in the second half. If Casey can spell him, perhaps he can maintain that success all year?
• Coco Crisp and Julio Lugo are hitting .300 in the early going, reminding us that even last year they had substantial streaks of success (which unfortunately got buried by their early-season slumps).
• Jacoby Ellsbury is hitting .176, evidence that even talented players can’t always expect everything to break their way.  The talent gap between Ellsbury and Crisp is smaller than it is made out to be.
• David Ortiz is 3-36 with only one home run and is looking awkward at the plate. Even great players ultimately succumb to age and injury, and heavy 1B/DH types often fare more poorly than their athletic counterparts.
• Daisuke Matsuzaka has the talent to win a Cy Young. He showed us flashes of that last June, before tiring in the second half. If he can improve his stamina and consistency this year, he’s the equal of anybody in the league.
• Lester and Buchholz are rookies and will struggle with consistency at times. Have patience here.
• Snyder’s ERA last year was deceptively strong, masking mediocre peripherals and a habit of pitching poorly under pressure. Nor is Bryan Corey as good as he looked in September. Happily the Red Sox have four talented relievers who have looked strong in the early going, plus the always-dependable Timlin waiting in the wings.

So enjoy the return of baseball, but take the early season successes and failures in stride.  Until a couple solid months of play are in the books, the pre-season expectations are more significant than anything we can glean from the current numbers.

That said, I believe the key to the Red Sox in 2008 will be the maturation of Daisuke Matsuzaka. We know the defense will be solid. The bullpen is as strong and deep as any in the majors. The offense is a known mix of strengths and weaknesses, overall solid if less than exceptional. Thus one major question mark remains: “Will this rotation work?”

We can count on Beckett to be good. His back injury was briefly concerning, however he appears to have recovered nicely having missed only a single start. But after that? While Wakefield, Lester, Buchholz, and Colon are all competent pitchers, none can carry the innings or expectations of a #2 starter. That burden falls on the shoulders of Matsuzaka.

Now I’ve been writing for months that Matsuzaka’s 2007 performance doesn’t get the respect it deserves. In the context of a hitters park in the AL East, a 4.40 ERA is reasonably strong. Mix in a 200+ inning workload, 15 wins overcoming inconsistent run support, plus zero unearned runs, and you can make a case that he was one of the better #2 starters in the league last year. Yet he tired as the season went on and was strictly a 5-inning pitcher in the playoffs. Last year Schilling stepped up in the final months. This year Matsuzaka will need to finish the job himself.

More than anything else, Daisuke needs to improve his command of the strike zone. He finished sixth in the league with 80 walks, behind only the young (Scott Kazmir, Edwin Jackson, Chad Gaudin) and the mediocre (Daniel Cabrera, Miguel Batista). His inconsistent command led to too many baserunners, too many high-stress pitches thrown from the stretch, and too many fat pitches driven for home runs. It is a testament to his skill that he was nonetheless successful, but there is obvious room for improvement. Of the top 12 AL pitchers in strikeouts, Matsuzaka was the only one with an ERA over 3.85. If he can reduce his walk rate by even 25%, he’ll be the equal of Verlander, Haren, or Sabathia.

So what have we learned in the early going? His control in the first few innings of his first start was shockingly poor, and he ended with five walks over five innings. His second start was the complete opposite, featuring nine strikeouts with no walks. Will he continue to be inconsistent, inexplicably losing his fastball command for an inning at a time as he did last year? Or is his strong second start a sign of things to come? The answer to that question will likely determine the fate of the Red Sox in 2008.

It has been YEARS since we really needed to worry about the player behind the plate. Is it time? The players involved…

Jason Varitek:
2006 34 .238/.325/.400 (.243/.331/.411 before his injury)
2007 35 .255/.367/.421
2008 36 .255/.352/.420 (PECOTA)

Of all the catchers in the PECOTA database, Varitek has the tenth strongest projected offense. More to the point, there are only four catchers whose projections are meaningfully better: Posada, Martinez, Mauer, and Martin. There should be no immediate concern over his performance, either at the plate or behind it.

Rather, the concern is that his performance and durability will slip as he gets into his late thirties. PECOTA projects only 384 PA for Varitek this year, a far cry from his usual ~525 and a reflection of the simple fact that catchers rarely age well. Do we go with the population averages? Or trust in his work ethic to make him an exception to the rule? Posada’s four-year deal has been widely cited, but Yankees fans expect that his future is at first base or DH. Varitek’s offensive production would not justify such a move.

Doug Mirabelli:
2006 35 .191/.267/.328
2007 36 .202/.278/.360
2008 37 .214/.294/.354 (PECOTA)

Dougie has been a great receiver for Wakefield over the years, a steady defensive presence and a surprisingly powerful hitter. But that ship has sailed — he will still poke an occasional home run, but his strikeout rate continues to rise and that projected .214 average seems very optimistic to me. Will he survive the season as Wakefield’s caddy?

George Kottaras:
2006 AA .275/.381/.473 (MLE)
2006 AAA .198/.269/.339 (MLE)
2007 AAA .225/.294/.389 (MLE)
2008 25 .238/.313/.372 (PECOTA)

Kottaras is the most advanced of the Red Sox minor leaguers. Those projections aren’t awful, ranking him as a middle-of-the-pack backup, but they aren’t going to merit a starting job. The good news is that he finished the season with strong performances in both July and August. The bad news is that 17 errors and 20 passed balls over the last two years isn’t going to keep the Fenway hounds at bay. Can he redeem his “prospect status” or will he fade into the sunset like Jose Malave?

Dusty Brown:
2006 AA .224/.284/.332 (raw stats)
2007 AA .236/.302/.409 (MLE)
2008 26 .235/.282/.371 (ZiPS)

Going by his defensive reputation, Dusty Brown might be the most likely replacement for Mirabelli. I’m suspicious, however, that this may simply be an application of Nichols’ Law of Catcher Defense: defensive reputations are inversely proportional to offensive production. Brown has been responsible for 30 passed balls and 16 errors over the past two years, hardly impressive numbers. And even if his defense is truly excellent, his bat is a long way from the majors. Has anybody seen enough of his work to comment first-hand?

I have intentionally omitted Mark Wagner and other catchers lower in the system. They have some talent but are too far from the majors to contribute this year or project with any kind of certainty. Wagner will try his bat at Portland in 2008, a test that has the potential to make or break him.

Looking abroad, I’ll bring up three names of possible interest (you might consider them representatives of the range of possibilities, as I definitely do not consider this a comprehensive list):

Ramon Hernandez:
2006 30 .275/.343/.479
2007 31 .258/.333/.382
2008 32 .252/.327/.399 (PECOTA)

Hernandez is your typical aging catcher. Despite a four-year run of success at his peak, PECOTA isn’t anticipating much of a rebound. His defense and game-calling have been considered strengths, yet there are signs that he might be slipping there. Signed for too many dollars, too many years, for a team with no hope of immediate contention and a rising star that they hope to bring up rapidly. Hernandez could be available for the proverbial song at the end of 2008. But is he in any way superior to Varitek?

Kenji Johjima:
2006 30 .291/.332/.451
2007 31 .287/.322/.433
2008 32 .274/.319/.395 (PECOTA)

Though superficially a close match for Ramon Hernandez, Johjima distinguishes himself in two regards. First, he is an exceptional catch-and-throw receiver who adds significant tangible value with his defense. Second, he is a free agent (we think — the Seattle P-I certainly believes so). While Hernandez can likely be had for a “B” prospect and the assumption of his remaining deal (1 year plus a team option), Johjima will likely command a three- or four-year guarantee. Is that too much for a catcher with average peak offense who is entering his mid thirties?

Taylor Teagarden:
2006 22 –missed essentially the entire season with TJ surgery–
2007 A+ .235/.352/.436 (MLE)
2007 AA .202/.267/.394 (MLE)
2008 24 .216/.311/.392 (PECOTA)

Teagarden appears to have fully recovered from the surgery, though there is always concern of a relapse. While his MLE’s aren’t terribly impressive, his line-drive swing is a favorite of the scouts. Now blocked by Saltalamacchia, Teagarden could presumably be acquired for a strong prospect (e.g. Lowrie). Would he add enough to the Red Sox system to be worth that kind of a price?

In conclusion, I don’t see any alternatives that are clearly superior to what we already have. Jason Varitek may be aging, but he keeps himself in great shape and continues to handle his defensive duties with his usual aplomb. Declining bat speed? Sure, but he remains a superior hitter to anybody we are likely to find. Do you recall anybody else who might legitimately hope for a .350 OBP or expect to surpass a .400 SLG?

Even if we could potentially replace Varitek with somebody marginally better and marginally cheaper, I believe it would be a foolish move for the organization. Naming him the “Captain” was both a reflection of the esteem the organization and his teammates hold for him and a symbolic gesture that cannot be lightly reversed. Some day it will be time for Varitek to step into a backup role or retire, but that day is still in the future. All parties involved understand this situation — I expect he will be signed without controversy to a two-year extension this spring.